- What: UFC on ABC 5
- Main Event: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
- Date: Saturday, June 24, 2023
- Location: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida
- Time: Prelims (11:30 a.m. ET) Main Card (3:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims: ESPN, Main Card: ABC
On Saturday, June 24, the UFC is back on ABC with an afternoon fight card that features a main event scrap between two of the best featherweights on the UFC roster. Those fighters are Josh Emmett, who is the No. 5 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings, and Ilia Topuria, who checks in at No. 9 in those same rankings. Here is some background on Saturday’s main event fighters before we discuss the betting breakdown for UFC on ABC 5.
Emmett went on a tremendous run after missing a year of action after he sustained severe injuries in a February 2018 knockout loss to Jeremy Stephens. Following that loss, the now 38-year-old went 5-0 and earned a shot at the interim UFC featherweight title in February. Yair Rodriguez submitted Emmett in the second round of that scrap. Emmett is 18-3 in his career with six KOs, two submissions, and 10 decisions.
Topuria has never tasted defeat. The 13-0 26-year-old joined the UFC in October 2020. He has a 5-0 record with the promotion, with three knockouts, one submission, and one decision. Topuria is coming off a December submission win over Bryce Mitchell.
Before we look at the best bets for the main event of the UFC on ABC 5 card between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC on ABC 5 main event: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria betting picks
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Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria betting breakdown
Josh Emmett is among the most potent strikers in the UFC’s featherweight division. Between October 2017 and December 2021, he scored 11 knockdowns in seven fights, winning three of those contests by knockout. There’s no doubt that Emmett has the skill and power to score a knockout win over Ilia Topuria, but can he?
Emmett’s best bet at UFC on ABC 5 is to exploit his opponent’s confidence. Topuria, who is immensely talented and could become a UFC champion one day, but he has yet to taste defeat. With his unbeaten record comes a great deal of confidence. At times during the Bryce Mitchell fight, Topuria seemed to let his success get to his head, and he then fought with too much aggression. That’s understandable. However, Topuria has yet to face a foe as accomplished, well-rounded, and well-coached as Emmett. If he gets too confident, Emmett’s power could end this fight in an instant.
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria statistical breakdown
Josh Emmett is a more active striker than Ilia Topuria, landing 4.17 significant strikes per minute to his opponent’s 3.32. However, Topuria is the more efficient striker, connecting on 49 percent of his significant strikes, as opposed to Emmett’s success rate of 37 percent. Emmett also gets hit more often than Topuria, absorbing 4.43 significant strikes per minute. Topuria gets hit at a much lower rate, absorbing 2.75 significant strikes per minute.
I believe this featherweight matchup will be contested on the feet. However, if the bout goes to the mat, both these men are capable grapplers, but Topuria gets the nod in every grappling category. He averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, has a 46 percent takedown accuracy rate, defends 92 percent of takedowns attempted on him, and averages 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes. Emmett averages 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes, succeeds on 37 percent of his takedown attempts, thwarts 58 percent of the takedowns attempted on him, and averages 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.
Best Bets for UFC on ABD 5 main event: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
There is a chance that Josh Emmett will end this fight via knockout. With the odds being what they are, picking Emmett to win by knockout is an extremely interesting value bet for this fight. However, I don’t believe that will be the outcome of this fight. My betting prediction for the main event of UFC on ABC 5 is for Topuria to win. As for the bet to make on the contest’s outcome, I think Emmett’s tendency to get hit a lot will result in Topuria scoring a knockout win on Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 in Jacksonville.
Best UFC on ABC 5 main event betting pick: Ilia Topuria to beat Josh Emmett via knockout.
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