- What: UFC Vegas 73 fight card
- Main Event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill
- Date: Saturday, May 20, 2023
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
An important bout in the UFC’s strawweight division takes place on Saturday, May 20, when Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill meet in the main event of UFC Vegas 73. The card takes place at the UFC Apex. The entire event streams live on ESPN+. Here is some background on the main event fighters before we discuss, in detail, the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 73 fight card.
Dern is the No. 8 fighter in the official UFC strawweight rankings. A former world champion in jiu-jitsu, the 30-year-old has added depth to her MMA game since she transitioned full-time to MMA. Dern’s last fight was an October 2022 majority decision loss to Yan Xiaonan. Dern is 12-3 as a pro. Her UFC record stands at 7-3. She has seven career victories via submission. Her other five wins have come by way of decision. Dern’s losses have come via decision.
Hill is the No. 14 fighter in the official UFC 115-pound rankings. The 38-year-old has a career record of 15-12. Hill is currently riding a two-fight winning streak. She is coming off a December decision win over Emily Ducote. Hill has five wins by knockout and 10 victories by decision. Two of her losses have been submission defeats, and her other 10 setbacks have been decision losses.
Before we look at the best bets for the main event of the UFC Vegas 73 card between Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 73 main event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill betting picks
|To Win UFC Vegas 73 Main Event|
Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill betting breakdown
The Dern vs. Hill bout was initially booked as a three-round contest for last week’s UFC on ABC card. However, the UFC moved the bout from that event to the main event of UFC Vegas 73. With that, the strawweight scrap went from three rounds to five rounds. That change makes things more favorable for Dern.
Hill is a high-output striker. She enters this fight as the No. 3 fighter in the UFC record book for significant strikes landed with 1,754. If she lands 47 more significant strikes, Hill will surpass Frankie Edgar for the No. 2 spot all-time. Unfortunately, Hill’s output does not equate to a lot of knockouts. It has also not convinced the judges that she should be on the winning side of many decisions as of late. Hill is 3-5 in her past eight fights, with two unanimous decision setbacks and three split decision losses.
Dern has become a much better striker over the years, but she has focused on that aspect of her game while neglecting her wrestling. Dern’s strength is on the mat. However, the submission ace has atrocious takedowns. Her takedown success rate is just 11 percent. Dern has shown she is an incredibly coachable fighter, but for some reason, she and her team have neglected to work on completing takedowns. Dern will be a more significant threat to the 115-pound division if she improves in the wrestling department. That’s a big if.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill statistical breakdown
Angela Hill is the more active striker with an incredibly high rate of 5.68 significant strikes landed per minute. However, as she has grown more comfortable with MMA, Dern is not afraid to use her developing striking skills. She lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute. Defensively, both women tend to get hit a lot, with Hill absorbing 4.97 significant strikes per minute and Dern getting tagged at a rate of 4.39 significant strikes per minute. Takedowns could play a role in this fight, but Hill’s takedown defense rate of 77 percent might be a challenge for Dern to overcome, unless she has improved her entries and setups. She won’t be able to muscle Hill to the mat.
These women are similar in size, with Dern having a one-inch height advantage and Hill having a one-inch advantage in reach.
Best UFC Vegas 73 bets
This fight will start as a striking battle, but Dern will slowly turn it into a grappling match. With five rounds to work, Dern has the best chance to score points and get the finish with her submission skills. Hill is a live underdog, and if Dern keeps this a striking battle or fails to rack up submission attempts, she could win the upset decision. With that, there is some value in betting Hill to win the UFC Vegas 73 main event. My best bet for UFC Vegas 73’s main event is for Dern to win by either submission in the second half of the fight or via decision. With five rounds, there’s also the off chance that this one could end in a draw. With that slight chance, one UFC Vegas 73 bet to consider, albeit a small wager, would be for the draw.
Best UFC Vegas 73 betting pick: Mackenzie Dern to beat Angela Hill at UFC Vegas 73 via submission.
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