Trent Reinsmith
- What: UFC Vegas 76
- Main Event: Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Date: Saturday, July 1, 2023
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN
The UFC is back in Las Vegas for this week’s UFC Vegas 76 fight card. In the main event of the ESPN show, Sean Strickland faces Abusupiyan Magomedov in a middleweight scrap. UFC Vegas 76 takes place at the UFC Apex. Here is some background on Saturday’s main event fighters before we discuss the betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 76.
Sean Strickland is taking a big chance against Abusupiyan Magomedov. Strickland enters the contest on a two-fight losing skid at middleweight. He has a career record of 26-5 and is the No. 7 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. Strickland is coming off a win at light heavyweight in January. Before his two straight setbacks, Strickland was riding a six-fight winning streak and closing in on a UFC middleweight title fight.
The unranked Magomedov is 25-4-1. He is 1-0 in the UFC following his 19-second knockout win over Dustin Stoltzfus in September. Magomedov received a $50,000 “Performance of the Night” bonus for that win. Before his UFC debut, Magomedov had not fought since December 2020.
Before we look at the best bets for the main event of the UFC Fight Night / UFC Vegas 76 card between Sean Strickland and Abusupiyan Magomedov, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 76 main event: Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov betting picks
| To Win UFC Vegas 76 Main Event |  |  |  |
| Abus Magomedov | +145 | +135 | +140 |
| Sean Strickland | -170 | -165 | -170 |
UFC Vegas 76 main event: Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov betting breakdown
We know Sean Strickland’s game plan. He’s going to move forward, apply pressure and fight behind his jab. He is incredibly effective in using that style. However, he also fights with his chin in the air and is extremely susceptible to punches thanks to his low guard and how he stands very upright when he is on his feet.
Abusupiyan Magomedov is a good striker who uses his reach and length well, mixing punches and kicks. He has also shown some solid takedown and ground striking skills. With that being said, his wins in PFL have not aged very well, and there is a lot of concern about how he will compete in a five-round contest against a fighter who likes to move forward and push the striking pace.
Strickland will not give Magomedov time to breathe or reset during the fight. This matchup is an enormous test for Magomedov.
UFC Vegas 76 main event: Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov who has the edge?
First, I implore you, do not look at the UFC stats for this matchup. It’s okay to peruse Strickland’s stats because he has a long history with the UFC, and his numbers represent what he has done over his career with the organization. However, Magomedov’s stats are incredibly inflated because they are based on just 19 seconds of UFC action. In short, his numbers are meaningless ahead of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card.
What one could consider is that Magomedov has four career losses, and his most recent defeat came under the PFL banner in 2018 to Louis Taylor, who was once linked to the UFC as a late replacement before injury prevented him from fighting and cost him his UFC contract. Taylor knocked out Magomedov in 33 seconds.
Strickland has faced better competition, and his two recent losses came to top UFC fighters Jared Cannonier and Alex Pereira before Pereira went on to win the UFC middleweight crown with a knockout of Israel Adesanya.
UFC Vegas 76 main event: Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov what’s at stake?
If Sean Strickland hopes to get back in the mix for a UFC middleweight title shot, this fight is a must win. He cannot afford to lose to a man with just 19 seconds of UFC experience on his resume. For Abusupiyan Magomedov, this is not a must-win fight. If he looks respectable against a tough opponent like Strickland, it should set him up to face another fighter in the top-15 of the division. If Magomedov wins, his next fight will be against a top-10 opponent.
Best Bets for UFC Vegas 76 main event: Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov
There is a lot of hype surrounding Abusupiyan Magomedov, and one day he might live up to that hype. This is not the fight where that will happen. Sean Strickland’s style and experience make him the betting favorite for the main event of this UFC Fight Night event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. There is value in betting Magomedov to score the upset win. If one is leaning in that direction, which I’m not, I would say the bet would be for him to win via decision. My betting pick for the main event of UFC Vegas 76 is for Strickland to pick up the victory by decision. However, there is a chance that Strickland’s output could earn him a TKO victory in the championship rounds based on damage and the potential that Magomedov’s cardio could fail in a five-round contest.
Best UFC UFC Vegas 76 main event betting pick: Sean Strickland to beat Abus Magomedov by decision.
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