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It was only a few months ago that we heard whispers that the Native American tribes wanted to give California sports betting another go. Nowadays, it’s not whispers — it’s a full-blown PSA.
Tribal leaders are going to conferences and tossing out the plans. Heck, they’re even going on podcasts and saying it’s 2028 or never for another crack at legalized sports betting.
On the recent episode of the New Normal podcast, three “big guns” in tribal affairs said as much. That includes Indian Gaming Association Conference Chair Victor Rocha, Executive Director Jason Giles, and California Nations Indian Gaming Association Chair James Siva (those tribes sure love their long job titles, eh?).
But the big news wasn’t just that they’re gunning for 2028 legalization. They also talked about why this time will be different than their failed 2022 ballot, and what’s lighting a fire under them this time around. Keep on reading, and we’ll recap the news coming out of the podcast chat.
Why This Won’t Be A Repeat Of 2022 Failures
Let’s be honest, the ghosts of the 2022 botched attempt to legalize sports betting in-state still linger four years later. How could it not when it was a catastrophic failure?
In case you’ve forgotten or are just murky on the details, California voters shot down not one, but two attempts to legalize. Big time. The tribes pushed Prop 26, which would’ve given them sole right to sports betting. It got just 33 percent approval at the ballot box.
The top sports betting apps were behind Prop 27. This would’ve given them an in-road to the lucrative California market — to the chagrin of tribe who felt they had had exclusive rights to betting inside the state. Anyway, this one bombed even more badly. Get this, 83 percent of voters said no to Prop 27.
But… here’s the thing: the tribes’ Prop 26 was more about sabotaging Prop 27 than actually legalizing on their own accord. Both companies spent millions on ads, mostly on disparaging one another. Don’t think this was a unified message to voters about the pros of betting.
“We’re trying to do something that’s data-driven,” Siva said. “Prop 27 had 83% no. But in a lot of ways tribes take pride in that number. We’re the ones who opposed that corporate bill. We had to sacrifice our tribal bill to make sure the corporate bill went down.”
There will be no commercial betting apps getting in the way in 2028. That gives tribes unopposed competition and a focus to go after the hearts and minds of California voters. And that’s why the 2022 comparisons end up falling short — it’s a whole new ball game in 2028!
“We’ve built up a huge amount of positive feelings for tribal gaming,” Siva said. “We keep our promises, do the right thing, and offer safe and regulated gaming.”
Prediction Markets Are Lighting A Fire Under The Tribes
There’s one more major difference between 2022 and now, and this might actually matter more. Californians can already bet on sports online. Well, sort of.
Prediction markets like Kalshi have exploded in popularity across the state, offering “sports contracts” that look an awful lot like traditional sports bets. Kalshi can do this because it’s federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not California gaming regulators.
And apparently, that’s confusing the hell out of Californians. Siva says recent tribal polling found roughly 60 percent of residents now think online sports betting is ALREADY legal in California. Just a few years ago, that number hovered around 20 percent.
“That’s how much of an effect they’ve had on the mindset of Californians,” Siva said.
But hey, tribes might be able to use the rise of prescribing markers to their advantage. Instead of having to convince voters that online sports betting will just line their own pockets more (true), they can raise the stakes and make this about tribal “sovereignty.”
As we said earlier, the tribes feel they are entitled to offering betting in the Golden State — and only them. There’s a signed compact with the state government going back 30 years saying this. It’s essentially being run over by prediction markets, who don’t have to put money back into the state.
“With prediction markets, you have nothing,” Siva said on the podcast. “You don’t know who’s operating or where the money is going.”
And early data suggests it’s big money leaving the state, too. Siva claims California and Texas (another non-legla sports betting state) alone account for roughly 60 percent of Kalshi’s users. Tribes have also estimated prediction markets could already be shaving as much as five percent off tribal gaming revenue.
These twin factors — the exits of commercial sportsbook apps and the rise of prediction markets — are why 2028 is nothing like the bombed-out 2022 attempt. And given the proximity that prediction markets have to the Trump administration, California voters who lean heavily left-wing have an enemy to rally against. California tribes have a huge chance at getting this thing legalized in two years, they really do.
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