Minnesota Moves To Ban Prediction Markets Inside State

The state of Minnesota sure has been in the news an awful lot this year, and not for the best reasons. It became a cultural flashpoint during the revolt against ICE agents and also a lightning rod for corruption linked to daycare centers.

This next news item isn’t at that level, but it does line up with what we’re seeing across the country: opposition to prediction markets. A slew of states have sued top players like Kalshi, but Minnesota isn’t even attempting to go through that slow legal process. They just want them legally banned and gone from the state. For good.

Keep reading, and we’ll tell you about the brand-new Senate bill that could make Minnesota the first state to prohibit prediction markets inside its borders.

Senate Bill Wants To Speed-Track A Ban

Minnesota is not the first, nor will it be the last, place that wants prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket out of its state. As mentioned, we’re seeing state after state — Arizona, Nevada, New Jersey, Washington, etc. — launch lawsuits. The issue is that most of those won’t be resolved anytime soon.

Minnesota, though, wants to get them out and get them out now. That’s the motivation behind Senate File 4511, which is gaining traction. This bill would effectively prohibit most, but not all, outcomes on prediction markets inside the state.

How, though? Well, by penalizing the platforms, for one. Language in the bill says anyone operating a prediction market would earn a felony offense, and be punished with up to five years in prison and fines up to $10,000.

The markets the state is most concerned about are the following: on sports, the weather, court cases, events in popular culture, war or mass casualty events or actions by elected officials. Now, Minnesota isn’t just targeting these markets out of nowhere, there’s some real rationale behind it, as we explain in the next sections.

Minnesota Calls For State Rights

Let’s start with the obvious: Minnesota believes prediction markets are moonlighting as sports betting apps. And you can see why, right? You can go on Polymarket right now and lay money on outcomes involving all the top sports.

Many states say this is blatant sports betting. Prediction markets say they’re “event contracts.” Right now, the federal government is agreeing with the latter, which is why prediction markets are available across all 50 states, no matter what the state regulations are.

And that’s the thing, Minnesota sports betting is strictly outlawed. It’s one of the few states still holding out on legalizing sports betting — only 11 states remain. And dammit, Minnesota wants its sovereignty respected!

During a recent hearing about the bill, a 2025 study was brought up that gave an estimate to just how much money is being spent at these sites locally. Sports Betting Alliance Policy Director Cameron Onumah pegged the number between $1.5 billion and $3.8 billion each year going illegally. That includes popular offshore betting too, though, not just prediction markets.

“We’re united in saying, we’ve got a gambling regulation system in Minnesota. We can’t allow somebody with a clever scheme to just say, ‘oh, we can ignore your laws and pretend it doesn’t exist,'” said Sen. John Marty, DFL-Roseville.

The Senate bill would penalize even advertising these platforms inside Minnesota. One Kalshi ad stating it’s the first app for “legal sports betting in all 50 states” was brought by Sen. Jordan Rasmusson during a hearing. Completely snuffing out these ads might not be easy, given the scale of the partnerships these platforms are signing as of late. Polymarket has exclusive deals with the likes of UFC, MLS, and MLB. Kalshi and the NHL are also in business.

Obviously, Minnesota does business with those promotions. UFC runs fight events in Minneapolis, and the city has pro teams with the Twins, United FC, and the Wild.

Prediction Markets Are A Magnet For Insider Trading

You can understand the problem with sports betting in Minnesota. But why does the state also want to bet on non-sports markets like politics and pop culture? Two words: insider trading.

Honestly, this isn’t even a concern anymore — it’s already happening out in the open. Earlier this month, believed-to-be insiders (50 of them allegedly) opened up fresh accounts on Polymarket and staked money on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. These wagers were placed hours before President Trump made the announcement. Look, maybe it was pure luck, but this has repeatedly happened with political events this year.

Ironically (or not ironically), the Trump family is believed to be in cahoots with these prediction markets. Donald Trump Jr. is an “advisor” to Polymarket, the company boasted at the end of 2025 — just as it tried to get access back to the United States (it’s previously only been available overseas).

Not to get political here, but it’s worth addressing the elephant in the room: Minnesota is a very, very left-leaning state, from its elected leaders down to its citizens. The more Trump insiders and family members benefit from these markets, the more they become right-wing aligned, and the more Minnesota lawmakers will feel emboldened to ban them. It’s really that simple.