Aaron Judge To Break Roger Maris’ Home Run Record Prop Picks

On July 29, Aaron Judge hit two home runs for the New York Yankees. Those two hits put him in elite company. On that night, he became just the 11th player in Major League Baseball history to hit 40 home runs before August 1. On July 30, Judge added another home run to his total for the year. With that, the Yankees’ outfielder entered August with a league leading 42 homers. Only two other players in the league, Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies (33) and Yordan Alvarez (30) of the Houston Astros have hit over 30 home runs.

Of the 10 other players who have had 40 or more home runs before August 1, only Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds have hit more than Judge. Bonds put up 45 in 2001, and McGwire had the same number in 1998. Sammy Sosa hit 42 home runs before August 1 in 1998.

With the run Judge is on, there are two questions. The first is will Judge break the all-time season home run record? The second is if Judge will eclipse the New York Yankees home run record held by Roger Maris. In 1961, Maris hit 61 home runs. Maris held the all-time record until Sosa, McGwire, and Bonds broke that record, but some see the totals of those three as tainted since they were all linked to steroids. Bonds hit 73 in 2001, McGwire connected for 70 in 1998, and Sosa had 66 in 98 as well.

Judge started August on a high note, hitting a home run in the Yankees in August 1 game against the Seattle Mariners to put himself at 43 homers on the 2022 MLB season.

Before we look at Aaron Judge’s chances to break Roger Maris’ home run record, check out our 2022 MLB Props Betting Guide as well as the best sites for betting on MLB in 2022. 

Aaron Judge to break Roger Maris’ Home Run Record prop picks

Will Aaron Judge Break Roger Maris' Home Run Record?BetOnline

Aaron Judge will break Roger Maris’ record

Aaron Judge’s best career year for home runs came in his first full season with the New York Yankees. In 2017, Judge connected for 52 home runs. He had 30 homers at the All-Star break that year but slowed in the second half of the season. He has not slowed down at all since this year’s All-Star break. Judge has hit 10 home runs since the July 19 All-Star game in Los Angeles. He had four home runs in the first half of July.

On July 30, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that the 30-year-old right-hander was on pace for 66 home runs this season.

With 57 games left in the season, Judge should be able to hit more than 61 home runs if he can stay healthy.

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Aaron Judge will not break Roger Maris’ record

If there is one thing that will prevent Aaron Judge from breaking Roger Maris’ home run record, it is his ability to stay healthy. Judge played 155 games as a rookie for the Yankees, but he has missed significant time in almost every other season. Judge played 112 games in 2018, 102 in 2019 and 28 of 60 in the shortened 2020 season. Last year Judge played in his most games since his first year in the majors, 148. As of now, he has played in 101 of the Yankees 104 games. No one on the club has played in as many games as Judge this season.

With his history, there is always the chance that Judge could miss time due to injury.

There is also the slight chance that the pressure could get to Judge, and with that, he could fall into a slump.

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Our Pick

Had Judge not played 148 games last year, I would be worried about injury. With the season he had in 2021 and the year he is having in 2022, I’m not all that worried about injury. As for pressure, I don’t think that is a worry either. If Maris still had the all-time MLB single-season record, that might have been a concern. But he doesn’t. With that, I think the pressure on Judge will be lessened.

Pick: Aaron Judge will break Roger Maris’ New York Yankees’ home run record.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He has written for USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.

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