Francesco Bagnaia to win 2023 MotoGP Italian Grand Prix

  • What: Gran Premio d’Italia Oakley / Italian GP
  • Date: Sunday, June 11, 2023
  • Location: Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello / Mugello Circuit
  • Where: Scarperia e San Piero, Florence, Tuscany, Italy
  • Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: CNBC

Following a win in France by Marco Bezzecchi, MotoGP is back in action this weekend with Sunday’s Gran Premio d’Italia Oakley / Italian GP race at Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello / Mugello Circuit in Scarperia e San Piero, Florence, Tuscany, Italy. In 2022, Francesco Bagnaia, who rode a Ducati, won the race. Bagnaia, who races for Ducati Lenovo Team, is in action on Sunday. He is favored to once again with the race.

Another competitor who will race in Italy is six-time MotoGP world champion, Marc Marquez. The 30-year-old, who last won a world championship in 2019, looks to win his first race of 2023 in Tuscany. Marquez returned to action in France after fracturing his hand on the third lap of the Portuguese GP in March. Oddsmakers were bullish on Marquez winning in France. However, he failed to finish the race after a crash. Marquez won this event in 2014. Since that win, he has finished as a runner-up twice, taking second place in 2016 and 2019.

The Mugello Circuit first hosted a Grand Prix event in 1976. The track has been a permanent fixture on the MotoGP schedule since 1991.

Before we look at the betting breakdown and picks for the 2023 MotoGP Gran Premio d’Italia Oakley / Italian GP, check out the best sites for MotoGP betting and our picks for the 2023 MotoGP Championship.

2023 MotoGP Italian Grand Prix betting picks

To Win Italian Grand PrixBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS Review
Francesco Bagnaia+120+120+120
Jorge Martin+500+500+500
Marco Bezzecchi+500+500+500
Marc Marquez+650+650+650
Brad Binder+900+900+900
Jack Miller+1400+1400+1400
Maverick Vinales+1400+1400+1400
Aleix Espargaro+1400+1400+1400
Fabio Quartararo+2000+2000+2000
Luca Marini+2000+2000+2000
Enea Bastianini+2500+2500+2500
Johann Zarco+2500+2500+2500
Alex Marquez+3300+3300+3300
Miguel Oliveira+3300+3300+3300
Alex Rins+5000+5000+5000
Franco Morbidelli+6000+6000+6000
Joan Mir+8000+8000+8000
Fabio Di Giannantonio+8000+8000+8000
Takaaki Nakagami+8000+8000+8000
Augusto Fernandez+10000+10000+10000
Raul Fernandez+10000+10000+10000

Francesco Bagnaia

The winner of last year’s Italian GP, Francesco Bagnaia, is favored to become the first repeat victor since Jorge Lorenzo won the race in back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016. The 26-year-old Italian is coming off an incredibly strong year in 2022, where he won five of the final 10 races of the season to claim the first MotoGP World Championship of his career. Unlike in 2022, Bagnaia has been strong in the early going of the 2023 MotoGP season, with wins in Portugal and Spain. However, he did not finish the most recent race in France because of a collision early in the competition. Bagnaia is first in the 2023 MotoGP Championship Standings with 94 points, which puts him a single point ahead of Marco Bezzecchi.

Francesco BagnaiaTO WIN 2023 ITALIAN GP
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Jorge Martin

Making the 40th MotoGP start of his young career, the 25-year-old Jorge Martin is coming off his best race of 2023. Martin finished in the runner-up spot in France. His start on Sunday marks his second start at Mugello. Last year he finished in 13th place in the race. The 2021 MotoGP “Rookie of the Year” winner has racked up his fair share of pole starts, nine over his career, but he has struggled to convert those favorable starting positions to wins.

Martin is in fourth place in the points race this year with 80. In addition to his second-place finish in France, he finished fifth in Argentina and fourth in Spain. He did not finish the other two races he started in 2023, Portugal and Grand Prix of the Americas.

Jorge MartinTO WIN 2023 ITALIAN GP
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Marco Bezzecchi

The winner of the recent French GP, Marco Bezzecchi, has started 2023 with aplomb. Last year was his first MotoGP season. He did not win a race, and his best finish was runner-up at the Dutch TT. However, he finished the year in 14th place in points. This year has been fantastic for the 24-year-old. In addition to his win in France, he placed first in Argentina, third in Portugal, and sixth at the Grand Prix of the Americas. He did not finish in Spain. His points total for the year puts him one point and one spot, behind the leader Francesco Bagnaia.

Bezzecchi raced in Italy last year and finished in fifth place. He’ll be looking to better that performance at the 2023 Italian GP.

Marco BezzecchiTO WIN 2023 ITALIAN GP
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Best betting picks for the 2023 MotoGP Italian GP

Francesco Bagnaia has pressure on him. He’s the defending MotoGP champ. He’s racing at home. He won the Italian GP in 2022, and he’s the 2023 MotoGP points leader. Despite that pressure, the 26-year-old is the best bet to win the 2023 Italian GP. For those looking for some value, it’s not out of line to think that Marc Marquez can pick up a win here in Italy, as he is always a threat to win any race he competes in.

Best bet to win the 2023 MotoGP Italian GP: Francesco Bagnaia

Francesco BagnaiaTO WIN 2023 ITALIAN GP
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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.