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- What: UFC Mexico Main Event
- Who: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
- Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
- Location: Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN2, ESPN+
The UFC returns to Mexico City on March 29, for a UFC Fight Night event. Like last year’s UFC Mexico fight card, former UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno competes in the main event. Moreno, who was the first Mexican-born fighter to claim UFC gold, faces recent UFC title challenger Steve Erceg in the main event of this year’s card. Before we look at the betting breakdown for the UFC Mexico main event, here is some information on Moreno and Brady.
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) is currently the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC flyweight rankings. The ex-champ is coming off a November unanimous decision win over Amir Albazi.
Steve Erceg (12-3) is ranked No. 8 fighter in the UFC’s 125-pound weight class. Erceg enters the UFC Mexico main event on the first two-fight losing skid of his career, most recently losing to Kai Kara-France via knockout in August.
Before we look at the best bets for Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg on the UFC Mexico City 2025 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 314 main event.
UFC Mexico City Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Brandon Moreno | -200 | -190 | -205 |
| Steve Erceg | +170 | +163 | +170 |
UFC Mexico City betting breakdown: Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno is among the best fighters to ever step into the Octagon at 125 pounds. He’s also one of the most well-rounded. Moreno sets a fast pace; he mixes his techniques well, has a solid chin, can hit hard, and does well on the mat. Prior to losing to Brandon Royval in February 2024, Moreno’s only losses between 2019 and 2023 came in title fights. If Moreno has any flaws, it’s that he headhunts when he’s striking, and he can sometimes forget just how good his takedowns are.
Moreno lands an average of 3.99 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43 percent. His striking defense is 60 percent, and he absorbs 3.53 significant strikes per minute. Moreno averages 1.59 takedowns per minute with a success rate of 46 percent. His takedown defense stands at 64 percent.
UFC Mexico City betting breakdown: Steve Erceg
It was a bit of a surprise to learn that Steve Erceg was getting a title shot after just three UFC bouts, but his “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of Matt Schnell in March 2024 was impressive enough to move him past some other higher-ranked flyweights who did not impress the UFC brass in recent outings. Erceg lost that title fight, but many viewers felt he should have received the nod from the judges. He followed that with a KO loss to Kai Kara-France at UFC 305.
Erceg is a striker. He has high-level boxing skills and works well off counters, something that could work in his favor against an opponent who moves forward as aggressively as Pantoja. Erceg is comfortable at range and in the clinch. When he is tied up with his opponent, he uses knees to the body and can unload sneaky fast elbows on the break. He employs slick head movement when he is on defense.
If there is a knock against Erceg, who fights out of Perth, it is that he can get a bit excited when he senses he is close to a finish. The 29-year-old has been tagged at these moments. Erceg also does well on the mat and has a good takedown game.
Erceg averages 4.37 significant strikes per minute and connects on 48 percent of his attempts. His defensive striking is 52 percent, and he absorbs 4.22 significant strikes per minute. On the grappling side, Erceg lands 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown success rate is 26 percent, while his takedown defense is 60 percent.
Best Bets: Mexico City main event – Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
This main event of the UFC Mexico City fight card should be an entertaining striking battle, but the veteran UFC fighter and former champion is the betting favorite for a reason.
The betting pick is Brandon Moreno to beat Steve Erceg by decision in the UFC Mexico City main event.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
Best Betting Sites 