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Wisconsin is in the middle of expanding legal sports betting in-state. The state has long had sports betting, just with a huge lid. Only Native American tribes were allowed to offer it, but it had to be done inside their casinos. No sports betting apps allowed.
Until now. Earlier this year, Governor Tony Evers signed a Wisconsin sports betting bill that would allow mobile wagers. However, it still has to be led by the tribes — commercial apps like BetMGM or FanDuel aren’t allowed unless it’s in partnership with a tribe.
At the same time, Wisconsin is embroiled in a heated lawsuit against prediction markets. Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul has sued all the major platforms for sidestepping their local regulations.
But there’s an interesting story coming out of Louisiana where a local tribe there and Kalshi actually partnered up. It’s a one-of-a-kind partnership and if it works, it might just be a lifeline to Wisconsin and other states with heavy tribal gaming. Let us explain what’s going on!
Louisiana Tribe Does The Unthinkable
Here’s what’s happening down in Louisiana besides Lane Kiffin angering all of college football. The Tunica-Biloxi Tribe — a relatively small tribe of around 1,600 members — just launched its own prediction market business called SaltTrade Derivatives. And instead of fighting Kalshi like almost every tribe has been doing, they partnered with them!
No, no, this isn’t a measly sponsorship deal. SaltTrade is using Kalshi as the engine per se of its entire app. Kalshi’s tech stack will match the event contracts, handle the trading infrastructure, and provide liquidity for SaltTrade.
As far as we can tell, this is a 1-of-1 partnership. Tribes up and down the country have spent much of the last year trash talking and suing prediction markets over what they perceive as sovereign rights to offer betting. Tunica-Biloxi looked at the same issue and apparently said: why fight them when we can team up?
The tribe’s CEO Marshall Pierite openly said this could become a model for other tribes, particularly ones that don’t have gigantic casino businesses pumping out money like an ATM. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has made essentially the same pitch: prediction markets and tribal economic development don’t necessarily have to be enemies.
Just days before the announcement, a federal appeals court blocked Kalshi from offering contracts on the lands of two California tribes fighting the company. Meanwhile, representatives from 17 tribes recently met with federal regulators over fears prediction markets could undermine tribal gaming rights. So yeah, this is quite a 180-degree turn from the Tunica-Biloxi tribe.
Wisconsin Has NOT Been Friendly With Prediction Markets Or The CFTC
It would be one thing for the state of Wisconsin’s feud with prediction markets to be cooling down by now, but all evidence suggests it’s as hot as ever.
Just days after Wisconsin filed its lawsuits, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) countersued Wisconsin. The CFTC’s argument has stayed consistent from the get-go — event contracts are federally regulated derivatives and states can’t simply slap their gambling laws on top of them.
Wisconsin and just about every other state is calling BS on that. Not only that, but the state is moving ahead with its statewide mobile betting system designed specifically to keep tribes in complete control. All 11 federally recognized tribes inside the state ultimately backed the bill. Obviously, none of them want this new system to be jeopardized by a prediction market.
Could Louisiana Offer A Middle Ground?
And that brings us right back to SaltTrade. No, Wisconsin can’t just copy-paste the Tunica-Biloxi deal tomorrow and make all these lawsuits and bad blood disappear. There are still major unanswered questions about how federal commodities law, state gambling laws, and tribal gaming rights all fit together. Courts are literally sorting that out as we speak.
But… Louisiana at least introduces a third and likely less contentious option. Until now, the ONLy conversation has basically been: prediction markets operate around tribes, or tribes fight to shut them down. SaltTrade asks what happens if the tribe becomes the operator instead?
That concept fits Wisconsin particularly well. The state has already decided mobile betting can expand, but tribes still need to remain at the center of the business. A future partnership where a Wisconsin tribe owns or controls the consumer-facing product while a company like Kalshi supplies technology and liquidity would at least follow that same general philosophy.
And suddenly everyone has something to gain. Tribes get access to one of the fastest-growing corners of betting instead of watching it pass them by. Prediction markets get tribal partners instead of another opponent in court. Wisconsin gets a model that could potentially preserve the economic role tribes have fought to protect. Keyword, of course, being the word potentially.
SaltTrade still has to prove this thing actually works. Courts still have to decide how much room prediction markets have on tribal lands. And Wisconsin’s current position toward Kalshi remains about as hostile as you can get.
We will be monitoring the situation in Louisiana closely. Some semblance of success down south and a lot of the ongoing issues we’re seeing between states, tribes, and prediction markets suddenly have an off-ramp that’s somewhat a win-win for everyone. We’ll just have to wait and see now…
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