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Football is the holy grail of the legal sports betting market. The five-month window between September and January is almost always the best of the year. This is especially the case in Florida sports betting. This state has more notable football teams than just about anywhere else in the country.
The Dolphins. The Buccaneers. The Jaguars. That’s just in the NFL, not to mention college football betting, which also covers the Seminoles, Gators, Hurricanes, and even more.
But just how big is betting about to get when the NCAA and NFL open their seasons in the next week? Let’s dig into the details in this article!
Betting Industry On A Record Tear
Before we zero in on Florida’s football betting scene, let’s zoom out for a second. Sports betting across the country is on an absolute heater right now. Get this, the regulated industry is pacing toward a record $164 billion in handle this year — up nearly 10 percent from 2024. Even more impressive? Revenue is running 17 percent ahead of last year’s pace and could hit $16 billion by the time we close the books in December.
The usual suspects are running the show. New York is still the undisputed heavyweight, on track for a ridiculous $25.8 billion in handle and almost $2.5 billion in revenue. Unless California or Texas ever legalizes sports betting (don’t hold your breath), no one will be touching the numbers that the Empire State is doing.
Illinois has carved out the No. 2 spot, with projections of $15.9 billion in handle and $1.42 billion in revenue. Obviously, those are great numbers too, but you can see how big the gap is between them and New York. Anyway, Illinois has squeezed out extra revenue thanks to aggressive tax policies. Just recently, they began taxing every bet at 25 cents (and it goes to 50 cents eventually).
Behind them, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania round out the top five. Together, those states make up almost half of all legal bets placed in the country. That’s the power law in effect. For those unaware, the power law says most of the output is concentrated by a few big players.
You might be thinking, “but what about Las Vegas?” Vegas and Nevada at-large may always be the betting capital of the country in spirit, but in the numbers, it’s slipping hard. By the end of 2025, Nevada is likely to fall behind Massachusetts in handle and drop to eighth overall in revenue. Nevada just doesn’t have the population to compete with the big wigs of the industry.
All of this sets the stage for football season, when handle numbers always go nuclear. And if the industry is already smashing records before kickoff, you can bet the coming months are about to take things to another level. We can already tell we’ll be writing A LOT of articles about this and that state breaking its betting record.
Business Is (Probably) Booming In Florida
Remember that $164 billion number we mentioned earlier for the industry? Welp, it’s actually higher. The number only counts states who openly report their sports betting revenues. Florida is not one of those, and that’s by design.
As you likely know, Florida’s sports betting market is entirely under the Seminole Tribe. That setup means there’s no official reporting of handle or revenue like we see in New York, Illinois, or anywhere else. The state doesn’t publish monthly numbers, and the Tribe doesn’t have to either. So you’re left with educated guesses and state projections, not hard data.
And honestly, the Seminoles have kept any revenue numbers tight-lipped. But… we do know this: the tribe will pay Florida about $20 billion over the length of its 30-year compact , including $2.5 billion over the first five years of the agreement. Therefore, you have to believe the industry is producing at least $500 million a year for the Seminoles. That’s the break-even number, and honestly, it’s a conservative number.
Florida has a population of 23.3 million. It has three NFL teams, two NBA, two NHL, and 2 MLB ones. Plus, a host of colleges. People are probably sports betting like mad on the Hard Rock Bet app. So they are likely making billions — not millions — on sports betting a year. That’s billions with a B!
It took years of legal wrangling to get here too. Lawsuits tried to shut down the exclusive compact, arguing it violated Florida’s constitution by allowing betting outside tribal land without a voter referendum. Appeals bounced around, but in the end, courts let it stand (for now; things can always change). The U.S. Supreme Court even declined to hear the case, effectively locking in the Seminoles’ monopoly.
So Florida keeps operating in stealth mode. Billions are flowing through Hard Rock Bet and physical sportsbooks, no transparency, just a quiet juggernaut fueling one of the country’s most passionate sports states. And with football season now here, the numbers — whatever they are — will explode.
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