Dean Etheridge
Max Verstappen won his third Grand Prix of the year in Miami on Sunday, and with Sergio Perez finishing second, they confirmed Red Bull’s dominance of the current F1 season. The two main Formula 1 futures markets are now virtually non-events, so to find some value picks, we’re looking at the futures betting markets that don’t involve Max Verstappen in the drivers championship, or Red Bull in the constructors championship.
- So far this season, a Red Bull driver has won all five of the Grand Prixs to have taken place
- Max Verstappen has won three, with his teammate Sergio Perez taking the other two
- Both drivers are streets ahead in the betting markets, with Red Bull also dominating the constructors market
Verstappen wins in Miami to dampen down talk of a Red Bull Championship race
So after all the hype and hope that Sergio Perez might be about to turn the 2023 F1 Drivers Championship into a contest, Max Verstappen went and won the Miami Grand Prix.
BREAKING: Max Verstappen wins the Miami GP 🥇 pic.twitter.com/sWZpgmMgx0
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) May 7, 2023
The win means Verstappen now holds a 14 points lead over Sergio Perez, which although significant, isn’t the biggest. At the moment, Verstappen is on 119 points, with Perez on 105. Behind the two Red Bull drivers is Fernando Alonso on 75 points, with Lewis Hamilton (56), and Carlos Sainz (44) making up the leading five.
In the Constructors Championship the gap is even bigger. After their fourth 1-2 finish of the season in Miami (the fifth race), Red Bull already have a lead of 122 in the team standings. At the moment, Red Bull are on 224 points, with Aston Martin second on 102. Following closely behind is Mercedes on 96, with Ferrari on 78. There is then a huge gap to McLaren and Alpine, who both sit on just 14 points.
How things are looking in the Constructors' Championship after the Miami Grand Prix 🔢 pic.twitter.com/qgx6NH927X
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) May 9, 2023
So what does this mean? Well, in a nutshell it means that Max Verstappen isn’t backable to win the Drivers Championship, he is now -1000 with the best online sportsbooks for Formula 1. And Red Bull are also not backable to win the Constructors Championship. If you think Verstappen is short, then check out Red Bull, they are -10000.
So this means we now need to switch our attention to the markets offering betting without Verstappen and Red Bull for our Formula 1 betting picks.
Betting to win the Drivers Championship without Max Verstappen
Even his market is dominated by Red Bull. Sergio Perez is now the -700 favorite in betting to win the 2023 Drivers Championship without Max Verstappen. The best Formula 1 betting sites then make Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamiton joint second favorites at +1000.
Charles Leclerc is next at +2500, with Carlos Sainz and George Russell both at +20000. Highlighting the gulf in class between the two Aston Martin drivers, Lance Stroll is next at +100000.
| Formula 1; 2023 Drivers Championship w/o Verstappen |  |  |  |
| Sergio Perez | -700 | -700 | -700 |
| Fernando Alonso | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Charles Leclerc | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Carlos Sainz | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| George Russell | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Lance Stroll | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
| Lando Norris | +200000 | +200000 | +200000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +200000 | +200000 | +200000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +200000 | +200000 | +200000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +400000 | +400000 | +400000 |
Let’s be realistic here. There may as well be a betting market without Verstappen and Perez available. But there isn’t, so we’re going to have to go with this one. There is little point in wagering on Perez at -700, so we’re looking at either of Alonso or Hamilton at +1000.
At those odds, it’s possible to back both. But for our betting pick, we’re going for Fernando Alonso. Mercedes are currently showing little sign of competing, and we think Fernando Alonso looks capable of picking up points, and he also looks the best equipped to cash in if Sergio Perez does start to struggle.
Betting to win Constructors Championship without Red Bull
At the moment, Aston Martin and Mercedes are both at +140 to win the championship without Red Bull. Ferrari are next at +275, with Alpine a huge +100000.
| Formula 1; 2023 Constructors Championship w/o Red Bull | | | |
| Aston Martin | +140 | +140 | +140 |
| Mercedes | +140 | +140 | +140 |
| Ferrari | +275 | +275 | +275 |
| Alpine | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
There is currently little evidence to suggest that the Mercedes car is going to perform better than the Aston Martin currently is. The only thing going in the favor of Mercedes is that they have two top quality drivers in Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, while Aston Martin only really have Fernando Alonso regularly competing for a position on the podium.
Aston Martin’s second driver, Lance Stroll, has only got 27 points this season, and is already 48 behind Alonso. So far this season, his best finish is the fourth place he claimed in Australia. His overall record this season is 6th (Bahrain), DNF (Saudi Arabia), 4th (Aus), 7th (Azerbaijan), and 12th (Miami).
The two Mercedes drivers have 56 (Hamilton) and 40 (Russell) points between them this season. This tells us that a lot of the points scoring will need to be done by Alonso, and it’s debatable if he can hold off the Mercedes duo all season.
If the two Mercedes drivers could average finishing fourth and fifth this season, that would be 22 points a race. Finishing fourth and sixth would give Mercedes 20 points a race. This all sounds feasible. This means if Alonso finishes third most weeks, receiving 15 points, Stroll would need to finish at least 7th to receive 6 points, and give Aston Martin 21 points.
Stroll needs to up his game
At the moment Stoll is averaging 5.4 points per race. Alonso is averaging 15. For Mercedes, Hamilton is averaging 11.2, and George Russell is averaging eight. This sees Aston Martin in the lead at the moment, but you would have to imagine Russell will improve on eight, and Hamilton could also probably improve on 11.2.
We think this makes Mercedes the best bet to win the Constructor Championship without Red Bull.
