Sergio Perez looks the best value bet to win the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix

Formula 1 pays its first visit to Europe in the 2023 season with the Monaco Grand Prix taking place this Sunday. Max Verstappen won the last race and leads the championship. So far this season, only his teammate Sergio Perez has challenged him. Will it be the same again this weekend? Let’s take a look with our Formula 1 betting picks.

  • What; 2023 Monaco Grand Prix – F1 Round 7
  • Where; Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco
  • When; Sunday, May 28th, 2023
  • Time; 9 am ET
  • Laps; 78
  • Race Length; 260.286 km

Last weekend was supposed to see the first race in Europe, but unfortunately due to the major floods seen in Italy, the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix was called off. Sometimes, there are just more important things in life than sport.

The cancellation of last week’s race means the last race held was the Miami Grand Prix, back on May 7th. That was won by Max Verstappen. The win saw him extend his lead at the top of the drivers championship to 14 points over teammate Sergio Perez.

This weekend, Round 7 of the 2023 season comes from the street circuit of Monte Carlo, Monaco. Last year this race was won by Sergio Perez, again, showing how effective he can be on street circuits. Second on the podium was Carlos Sainz, with Max Verstappen coming third. The fastest lap was recorded by Lando Norris in his McLaren Mercedes, with the local lad, Charles Leclerc claiming pole position for Ferrari.

So let’s now take a look at how this all stacks up in the betting to win this year’s race.

Betting to win the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix

Starting in pole position with the best Formula 1 betting sites is Max Verstappen. The current championship leader is +125 to win this race, the best odds he has been for a long time. If you compare that to his recent races, he was -240 to win at Imola, and in the Miami Grand Prix he was -225.

This shows the best online sportsbooks don’t see this as a circuit that suits the double-world champion. A theory backed up by the fact he has only won once here, back in 2021.

Second in the betting this weekend is Sergio Perez. The Mexican has had a decent start to the 2023 season, and he is just +325 to win on Sunday. Third in the betting is Charles Leclerc at +475, with Fernando Alonso next at +550.

There is then a staggeringly large gap in the odds before we get to Lewis Hamilton at +2800. Highlighting just how far off the pace Mercedes currently are.

More betting on the Monaco Grand Prix can be found on our below odds table. These odds are taken from the best online sportsbooks for F1 betting.

Formula 1; 2023 Monaco Grand Prix BettingBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Max Verstappen+125+125+125
Sergio Perez+325+325+325
Charles Leclerc+475+475+475
Fernando Alonso+550+550+550
Lewis Hamilton+2800+2800+2800
Carlos Sainz+2800+2800+2800
George Russell+3300+3300+3300
Lance Stroll+10000+10000+10000
Esteban Ocon+25000+25000+25000
Pierre Gasly+25000+25000+25000
Lando Norris+35000+35000+35000
Oscar Piastri+50000+50000+50000
Valtteri Bottas+50000+50000+50000

Our Picks

Right, now it’s time to make our free sports betting picks for the Monaco Grand Prix. And for the first time this season it’s not as straightforward as it has been to simply say a Red Bull will win.

But even though Verstappen is odds against for the first time since what seems like Dinosaurs roamed the earth, it also doesn’t mean the Red Bulls won’t win. In 2021, Verstappen won here, and in 2022, Perez was victorious.

Then take a look at Monaco born Charles Leclerc; He has failed to even finish the race in his first three attempts. And then last year, whilst leading the rain affected race, Leclerc was the victim of a strategy failure from his team, leading to him losing the lead, and eventually finishing in fourth place. This doesn’t inspire any confidence that Leclerc will break the domination of the Red Bulls this weekend.

Qualifying is the key to success

So where is the value? Well, qualifying is key here. The Monaco Grand Prix may be one of the flagship F1 events, but it doesn’t always make for the best race, as overtaking is notoriously difficult on the tight street circuit. So whoever is on pole position, stands a great chance of winning.

So far this season, Perez has been on pole position twice, and so has Verstappen. The one time neither Red Bull started at the front of the grid was in Azerbaijan, where Charles Leclerc started the street circuit race in first position.

Verstappen is favored to be in pole position, the Red Bull driver is +137. Second is Charles Leclerc at +175, with Sergio Perez at +200. We believe a bet on Sergio Perez to be on pole position could be good value.

And when all things are considered, we also think Sergio Perez offers the best value to win the race. He performs well on street circuits, and he has two pole positions to his name this season. He has also shown a determination to take on Verstappen this season, winning two of the five races held to date. So at decent odds of +325, Sergio Perez is our pick to win the race.

Sergio PerezTo win 2023 Monaco Grand Prix
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Dean Etheridge

Hailing from Coventry, England, Dean brings his British wit to every piece he pens. A true lover of a good wager, Dean's passion for both sports and writing has merged into the world of sports betting. Dean is the mastermind behind his very own soccer and cricket betting platforms. As the owner and editor of a renowned football betting website, Dean has established himself as a force within the industry. His expertise as a freelance content writer is centered in the realms of football, cricket and Formula 1. From breaking down odds to unraveling strategies, Dean's writing radiates an unmatched love for sports. When he’s not immersed in sports betting, Dean enjoyes exploring new culinary delights, conquering the latest car racing video games, or getting lost in the pages of a novel.