Eric Uribe
One of the most roller-coaster MotoGP seasons in recent memory is down to one race: the Valencian Grand Prix, which goes down on November 6. There’s still time to lay money on MotoGP futures on who wins the world championship and our advice might surprise you. You’ll want to keep reading for this under-the-radar pick.
2022 MotoGP Season Recap
It’s all led to this: one race to seal or possibly steal the 2022 MotoGP championship. But how did we get here? What’s at stake in Valencia? Those are all important questions to ask right now which is why we’re quickly recapping the 2022 MotoGP season.
The reigning champion of the world, Quartararo, dominated most of the MotoGP season. Once he took the standings lead in April, he didn’t relinquish it until the end of October’s Australian Grand Prix. Entering last weekend’s Malaysian Grand Prix, Quartararo was only 14 points behind the leader. That is now a 23-points deficit, which puts the champ in a dire situation going into Valencia.
Of course, he’s been overtaken by Francesco Bagnaia. The Italian is in the driver’s seat to win his first title — something that felt unthinkable just a few months ago. At one point in the season, Bagnaia trailed Quartararo by 91 points. He made up the ground so quickly by winning five of the past nine races.
Given Bagnaia’s commanding lead, it should come as no surprise that he’s the overwhelming favorite to win the 2022 title. Take a look at the current championship odds, as listed across the top online sportsbooks for MotoGP:
| Rider |  |  |
| Francesco Bagnaia | -800 | -800 |
| Fabio Quartararo | +2000 | +2000 |
Here are the clinching scenarios at the finale. Bagnaia can win the title if one of these three scenarios plays out: Quratraro doesn’t win outright, he finishes P14 or higher, or he finishes P15 and Quartararo doesn’t win. Again, only one of those outcomes is needed to deliver a title to Bagnaia.
Quartararo isn’t so lucky. He has one winning scenario and that’s it. Quartararo MUST take first place and Bagnaia gets P15 or worse to get the upset title win. That’s it. Surely, you’re thinking Quartararo is cooked right? Done for? Well, not so fast, which leads us to our next section.
Betting Pick To Win 2022 MotoGP World Title
Look, you saw the odds above. Bagnaia is a staggering favorite to win. Based on the odds, his implied probability of winning it all is around 90 percent. But we’re going to be contrarians and tell you to not pick Bagnaia to win the 2022 MotoGP title. Not necessarily because we don’t think he’s actually going to do it, but because there’s no money to be made. At all.
Betting isn’t just about picking winners. Now, it’s also about chasing value — and that gets overlooked by bettors all too often. Right now, Bagnaia is the ultimate high-risk, low-reward bet, and that’s rarely ever a scenario you want out of a wager.
So yes, we’re advocating a wager on Quartararo. He hasn’t won a race since the Germany Grand Prix in June, but as you saw in Malaysia, he’s still competing. You never want to write off a world champion that easily, even one in danger of a historic collapse like the Frenchman.
Of course, Quartararo can’t bank on a win alone to claim the world title. He also needs Bagnaia to not earn any points himself, which dare we say, is completely plausible. Let’s not forget that Bagnaia has five DNFs this season. Five! Before his recent hot streak, Bagnaia was the ultimate boom-or-bust rider in the whole grid. Who’s not to say he goes bust one more time?
It will take the perfect storm for Quartararo to become world champ once more, but at these long odds, it’s worth taking a shot on. Plus, even a small wager can pay out a pretty profit. Low-risk, high-reward, that’s what we like to see.
How To Bet On 2022 MotoGP Futures?
As mentioned before, the Valencia Grand Prix is still days away on November 6. So you have some time to bet on MotoGP 2022 futures, but not a lot. To do just that, you need to hit one of the trusted online sportsbooks below. They have odds on not just this futures bet, but also the season-ending Valencia Grand Prix. It’s your last chance to bet on MotoGP for months so what are you waiting for?
One more thing before you run off a bet: look into the lucrative sportsbook bonuses offered at each site. With these deals, you could earn hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play right off the bat. Not only can that fund your MotoGP bets but other sports too like the World Series or the upcoming FIFA World Cup. See the table below for details on claiming. All you need to do is hit one of the “play now” buttons and you’re off to the races (pun intended)!
