Sabalenka Can Land First Grand Slam

Iga Swiatek is the short-priced favorite going into this year’s Australian Open, but Aryna Sabalenka could be a better option as she bids to win her first Grand Slam event.

Who do Bettors Favor?

Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks we can see that world number one Iga Swiatek is the overwhelming favorite for Australian Open glory among the bookies. The Wimbledon and US Open winner is rated as a +185 chance in Melbourne, while her closest challenger, Aryna Sabalenka, is priced at around +900. Sabalenka heads a group of contenders in the +1000 to +1400 range including Cori Gauff (+1200) Caroline Garcia (+1200) and Ons Jabeur (+1400).

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Australian Open Betting Briefing

When you’re checking out the Australian Open betting markets it is important to keep one eye on the tennis news as players coming back from their winter break are prone to develop injuries in the build-up to this first Grand Slam event of the year.

The other factor to bear in mind is that the Australian Open courts are known for being among the fastest in the world. Whether it is true that the courts speed up over the course of the two-week tournament, it is certainly the case that they tend to play faster during evening games, when lower temperatures cause the air inside the tennis balls to contract, making them heavier and reducing bounce.

It is also worth noting that, unlike the men’s tournament, the women’s singles event at Melbourne has been a wide-open contest in the last few seasons. Since 2010 there have been nine different winners of this competition, and the last person to manage back-to-back wins was Victoria Azarenka in 2013.

Bookies’ Favorite for Australian Open 2023

World number one Iga Swiatek is a short price to pick up her third Grand Slam win after her successes at the French Open and Wimbledon last year, but tennis bettors should be wary of betting on her at these odds, given that she pulled out of the warm-up tournament in Adelaide with a shoulder injury.

There is also the suspicion that the surfaces at Melbourne are not ideal for her. Although she has performed on all courts, her game is not as well suited to these fast hard courts as some of her rivals, and while she obviously has the talent to back up the bookies’ opinions, she offers little value for the bettor.

The Main Contenders for Australian Open Glory

Aryna Sabalenka has arguably underperformed at Grand Slams, given her immense talent, but her aggressive style of play is capable of overcoming any opponent on her day and she goes into the Australian Open in top form, having won the event in Adelaide last week.

Of the other main contenders at this year’s Australian Open Cori Gauff can’t be far away from a breakthrough in a Grand Slam, which may well come this year, but she is struggling at the moment and with significant doubts over her forehand, doesn’t represent much value here. Caroline Garcia may still be improving but whether she has the capability of winning a Grand Slam seems in doubt and Ons Jabeur’s first Grand Slam, if it comes, will surely be on grass.

Jessica Pegula represents an interesting option at bigger odds. Admittedly, she was poor in the WTA Finals, but she is experienced enough to bounce back from that and her convincing win over Swiatek in the United Cup was a notable sign of progress. She reached the last eight at three of last year’s Grand Slams and she could be on the brink of breaking through at a big event.

Aryna SabalenkaTo win the Australian Open
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Jessica PegulaTo win the Australian Open
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Other Australian Open Betting Picks

In what has often been an open competition, tennis bettors are advised to consider options outside the top contenders and of those at bigger odds, Elena Rybakina looks a good option.

Last year’s Wimbledon victory will have given her the confidence to believe that she can compete with and beat anyone in the big events, and she may still be improving. At the end of December she overcame Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Caroline Garcia in a World Tennis League event and her strong all-court game will enable her to cope with the unique challenges of the Melbourne courts.

Elena RybakinaTo win Australian Open
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Noelle Matthews

Noelle Matthews is a tennis and soccer fan who has been working in the betting industry for over 15 years and has written for some of the big players in the sector, including Betfair, ESPN and Sporting Life. She has an in-depth knowledge of both tennis and soccer betting and you can trust her reviews to include the most precise, knowledgeable information available.