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Florida sports betting is on fire this time of the year. Dolphins, Bucs, Jags, Hurricanes, Gators, Bulls, Knights, and we could go on and on mentioning the Florida football teams you could legally bet on right now.
Here’s the thing: top mobile app Hard Rock Bets wants you wagering those teams inside its app. Of course they do, right? Billions are at stake.
But… Hard Rock faces stiff competition, in Florida and across the country. In Florida, they have an exclusive compact with the state that makes Hard Rock the only legal betting option inside the Sunshine State. That doesn’t mean Hard Rock is resting on its laurels though. The opposite actually.
See, that exclusivity has been challenged over and over in court. A recent opponent argues the 2018 constitutional amendment requires voter approval for any gambling expansion. The Seminoles — who own the Hard Rock brand — didn’t use a ballot to enter the market. Instead, it was a handshake deal with Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
Albeit an expensive deal. The Seminoles will pay the state close to $20 billion over the length of the 30-year deal. But they’ve likely spent hundreds of millions of dollars more in lawyer fees, fending off opponents. It’s an expensive monopoly to maintain.
Welp, now Hard Rock is trying to win hearts and winds with the local pro sports teams in the state. Keep reading for details on the sportsbook’s latest sponsorship deal.
Hard Rock Signs A Deal With Buccaneers
Thats right, the Seminole-owned sportsbook just inked a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, giving them exclusive rights to push legal betting straight to Bucs fans. The partnership means special promos at Raymond James Stadium and inside the Hard Rock app.
Hard Rock says the Bucs are already one of their most-bet teams in the app. Now they’ll use the deal to crank that engagement even higher with in-stadium offers and fan-only perks.
This deal only gets better if Tampa Bay can replicate last year’s success when they won the NFC South. Quarterback Baker Mayfield revived his career and the Bucs franchise with an explosive season. They followed that breakout year with a Week 1 win vs Atlanta so already off to a good start. The better they play, the more engaged their fanbase, the more bets will flow into Hard Rock.
Competition Country-Wise Is Stiffer
Perhaps the reason the Seminoles are doubling down in Florida is because, well, the national competition outside the state is harsh. Hard Rock Bet is available in many more states — Arizona, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, and several others. But Hard Rock doesn’t have a monopoly in any of those states like it does in Florida.
It’s believed Hard Rock has around a 5 percent market share in the United States. That’s only an estimate, though. In Florida, they don’t have to openly report how much users or revenue they have. But table math puts them around that 5 percent mark, which would be higher than ESPN Bet, but way behind giants like DraftKings and FanDuel.
That’s why this Bucs deal matters. Florida is their stronghold, their lifeline essentially. By embedding deeper with the state’s most successful NFL team, Hard Rock is betting Florida bettors won’t choose other options over them, which there are plenty of as we discuss in the next section.
Florida Bettors Are Choosing Unregulated Options
A Yield Sec report pegged Florida’s unregulated gambling market at $3.3 billion last year — nearly four times bigger than projected Hard Rock’s legal haul. Offshore sportsbooks and sweepstakes casinos are thriving because they offer better promos, more variety, and have no restrictions. So you can have a monopoly inside a state as Hard Rock doesn’t, but that doesn’t mean bettors won’t still go elsewhere.
And then there’s prediction markets. Kalshi has also become a huge player in “sports betting.” We put that in quotation marks because Kalshi considers itself a financial exchange offering “sports contracts.” Whatever it is, it’s making a killing off it. During opening weekend of the NFL season, Kalshi handled $300 million in trading volume nationally, including $196 million on Sunday alone. The Ravens-Bills primetime matchup accounted for $35 million by itself. College football popped too, with Michigan-Oklahoma topping $10 million.
Again, these aren’t technically bets. They’re federally regulated “event contracts,” overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But you have to believe regular sports bettors are eschewing apps like Hard Rock in favor of prediction markets.
Again, that’s why this Buccaneers deal so a worth reporting on. It comes in a critical point where Hard Rock’s $20 billion monopoly is being challenged. By the courts, offshore sportsbooks, and yes, prediction markets. You can spend all this money on the exclusivity, and still lose out.
Instead of taking it on the chin, Hard Rock is stepping up its marketing game — in Florida and across the country. For now, they’re choosing to compete on marketing and product, not in the courtroom. But if prediction markets continue the run of success they are on, who’s to say the Seminoles want due back? We’d certainly expect it at some point…
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