World Cup 2026 First-Time Winner Odds

by Johnny Francisco

Updated: June 12, 2026

Can a new nation lift the trophy in New Jersey? Review FIFA World Cup first time winner odds, breakthrough candidates, longshots and futures value for 2026.

The World Cup has been lifted by only eight nations in its 96-year history. Just 13 have even made it to the World Cup Final, from the 80 different countries which have competed in the tournament in that time.

Four new ones join them in 2026: Uzbekistan, Jordan, Curaçao and Cape Verde are here on merit but all are wasted bets for first time winners. But there could be some smarter investments higher in the FIFA rankings.

How World Cup first time winner market works

The FIFA World Cup “First Time Winner” betting market is a futures bet that asks a simple question: Will a nation that has never previously won the World Cup lift football’s ultimate prize?

Rather than selecting a specific team, bettors choose between two outcomes:

Yes. a new champion is crowned
or
No. The winner is one of the countries that has already won the tournament.

Bookmakers often favour the No option because historically only a small group of established nations have won the World Cup.

The key difference between this market and outright winner betting is that the Yes price effectively combines the chances of all nations that have never won the World Cup into a single selection.

Bettors back the possibility that any one of the eligible first-time winners lifts the trophy. Because multiple teams contribute to the outcome, the Yes odds are usually much shorter than the odds available on any single first-time winner.

Bettors, therefore, assess factors such as tournament format, team strength, and knockout-stage paths when deciding whether a new nation can finally claim the trophy.

Most likely first time winners

A number of nations arrive in North America with genuine designs on winning the World Cup on July 19. Many of them can call on recent memories of glorious tournaments to bolster their sense of optimism, while others hope to lift the trophy for the very first time. Let’s take a look at some of the leading contenders in the first time winner market:

Portugal

The Iberians boast a squad brimming with young and experienced talent, strength in depth all over the pitch, and enter a relatively kind group they will be expecting to win.

Colombia offer stern opposition in their final game but Portugal hope to have already picked up maximum points from opening matches against DR Congo and debutants, Uzbekistan.

Cristiano Ronaldo returns for a record-extending sixth World Cup at the age of 41. It remains to be seen whether the Al-Nassr forward will start up front, but coach Roberto Martinez has shown little inclination to drop Ronaldo to the bench, and the five-time Ballon d’Or winner scored a goal a game in qualifying.

Elsewhere, the Seleccao have an abundance of talent, verve and experience. Diogo Costa is a fine goalkeeper with an even better penalty record, very useful in knockout football. Ruben Dias is a colossus in central defence, while full-backs Nuno Mendes and Joao Cancelo are at different ends of their careers but offer world class options on either side.

Their midfield is a thing of wonder with PSG maestros Vitinha and Joao Neves hoping to continue their club form for the national team while Player of the Year in England, Bruno Fernandes will be looking to do the same. Bernardo Silva, Matheus Nunes and Ruben Neves also offer outrageous depth for Portugal in the middle of the park and it is here they will hope to wrest control of matches.

Ronaldo is supported in attack by a number of players still striving to become leading men. AC Milan’s Rafael Leao is probably the closest and will hope to remind fans why he has attracted so much transfer interest in the past, after his club side’s poor season this term.

If Portugal gain momentum in the group phase, they are well-placed to go a long way and they could surpass their modern best of fourth in 2006. Their all-time best World Cup finish remains third place in 1966.

🚨🇵🇹 𝗡𝗘𝗪: Portugal’s best XI for the World Cup! pic.twitter.com/JmZoL1qHRy

— The Touchline | 𝐓 (@TouchlineX) June 2, 2026

Netherlands

The Netherlands arrive at the World Cup with cautious optimism, carrying a squad that blends proven performers with an emerging generation of  stars. Drawn into a manageable group, the Oranje will expect to progress comfortably and know that they have a history of regularly troubling the leading contenders.

Despite being one of world football’s traditional powers, the Dutch remain in pursuit of a first World Cup triumph. Three times runners-up, they have often produced talented sides only to fall agonisingly short on the biggest stage.

Coach Ronald Koeman has built his side around a strong defensive foundation. Captain Virgil van Dijk brings invaluable leadership and experience, while Nathan Aké offers versatility and composure alongside him. The Netherlands are also blessed with quality in goal, with Bart Verbruggen establishing himself as one of Europe’s most promising young goalkeepers.

Much depends on the fitness of Frenkie de Jong. He has missed a lot of football but when available, the Barcelona playmaker is the fulcrum of the team, dictating tempo and carrying the ball through pressure. It is a hardworking and technically gifted group in midfield that includes Tijjani Reijnders and Ryan Gravenberch, giving Koeman a blend of creativity, energy and control.

The Dutch possess plenty of attacking threat. Xavi Simons is an exciting talent, despite an abject first Premier League season at Spurs, and will be expected to provide invention in the final third. Cody Gakpo has scored major tournament goals before while the speed and power of Donyell Malen and Brian Brobbey are nice options to have.

The Netherlands may not attract the same attention as some of the tournament favourites, but they are a difficult side to beat, unbeaten in 12. If their key players remain fit, Oranje have every chance of making a deep run and perhaps finally claiming the prize that has long eluded them.

Morocco

Morocco head to the World Cup carrying great expectations after their historic run to the semi-finals in 2022 when the Atlas Lions became the first African nation to reach the last four of a World Cup.

But after Walid Regragui’s resignation in March, Morocco enter the tournament under new coach Mohamed Ouahbi. They will need to quickly regain the spirit, organisation and resilience that underpinned their remarkable campaign in Qatar.

In goal, Yassine Bounou is one of the game’s most recognisable keepers. The veteran was instrumental in Morocco’s run four years ago, particularly in penalty shootouts, and his experience is crucial.

Captain Achraf Hakimi is still the team’s biggest star, offering a unique blend of attributes on the right flank and has won two Champions’ Leagues since Qatar. While Nayef Aguerd still marshals the centre of defence and embodies the toughness that has become synonymous with this Moroccan side.

The midfield blends industry and flair. Sofyan Amrabat remains the heartbeat of the team when fit, providing defensive protection and aggression, while players such as Azzedine Ounahi and Bilal El Khannouss both raise their game for the national team and offer the technical quality needed to progress the ball against stubborn opponents.

Further forward, Morocco have genuine match-winners. Brahim Diaz has added another dimension to the attack between the lines, while Youssef En-Nesyri remains a proven goalscorer at international level. Hakim Ziyech may be 33, but still has an eye for the spectacular.

If they can rediscover the defensive solidity that defined their success in Qatar, Morocco have the talent, belief and tournament experience to go a long way.

Norway

Norway arrive at the World Cup looking to make up for lost time. After decades on the fringes of international football, the Scandinavians finally look to have a generation capable of competing with the world’s best.

Much attention falls naturally on Erling Haaland as one of the great goalscorers in world football. The prolific forward’s international record is unparalleled and many expect him to be a leading light at his first World Cup. Haaland enters the tournament in his peak years and is expected to provide the firepower behind any Norwegian challenge.

However, Norway are no one-man team. Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard is the heartbeat of the side and one of Europe’s finest creators. Blessed with exceptional vision and technique, he will supply Haaland and exert his control over games from where he finds space.

Coach Ståle Solbakken has assembled a balanced squad with experience throughout the spine of the team. Alexander Sørloth is another high-grade battering ram to partner Haaland, while the neatly-named Sander Berge and Patrick Berg provide energy and stability in midfield.

Kris Ajer brings Premier League experience next to Leo Ostigard, ahead of goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland who is a reliable presence between the posts. Right-back Julian Ryerson has started a Champions’ League Final.

The biggest question surrounding Norway is whether their supporting cast can consistently match the quality of their superstar duo.

If Norway can navigate the group stage and build confidence, they possess enough attacking quality to trouble any opponent. A first World Cup title may be an ambitious target, but this talented generation certainly has the potential to make Norwegian football history.

𝐄𝐑𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐇𝐀𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐃’𝐒 𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐒𝐓 𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐋𝐃 𝐂𝐔𝐏 🏆🇳🇴

After 28 years, Norway are back on the biggest stage 🤩

And this is their 26-man World Cup squad 👇 pic.twitter.com/CoUAyC1sCL

— 433 (@433) May 21, 2026

First time winner candidates vs true longshots

Among nations seeking a first World Cup triumph, the Netherlands and Portugal stand out as the most credible contenders. Both possess world-class talent, tournament experience and the squad depth needed to cope with summer competition.

Norway and Morocco are interesting outsider bets, with more than enough quality to spring surprises, but they remain a step behind the leading challengers and would require an exceptional run to become first-time champions.

Many are intrigued by the prospects of host nation USA, but despite their favourable group draw, they are a long way from winning the whole tournament, even with home advantage.

How the 48-team format affects the first time winner market

The expanded format could boost the chances of a first-time World Cup winner. More qualifying places mean more emerging nations reach the tournament, while the extra knockout round should create another opportunity for upsets.

A favourable draw and a few surprise results can open unforeseen paths deep into the competition.

First time winner vs dark horse bets

A first time winner is a team whose nation has yet to lift the World Cup before whereas a dark horse is a team who have the potential to perform above expectations. Uruguay, for example, are a dark horse favorite but cannot be a first time winner due to the Celeste lifting the Jules Rimet trophy in both 1930 and 1950.

Can Portugal, Netherlands, Norway or Morocco finally win the World Cup?

Portugal, ahead of the Netherlands, are the strongest contenders, while Norway and Morocco are outsiders.

Ultimately, any first-time winner will need huge strength in depth, players hitting form at the right time and a little luck to emerge victorious. The structure of the tournament certainly opens the door wider than before, but previous winners like France, Argentina and Spain set the standard.

Best World Cup betting promotions

The 2026 World Cup gives sportsbooks a chance to offer more than standard bonuses and match odds. Some bookmakers are creating dedicated tournament promos that focus on big in-game moments, bet protection, and bracket-style prediction contests.

BetOnline World Cup Red Card Refund

BetOnline’s World Cup Red Card Refund can help bettors when a red card changes the direction of a match. Eligible World Cup spread and 3-way moneyline bets may be refunded up to $100 if the selected team receives an on-field red card and loses.

Bovada World Cup Bracket Challenge

Bovada’s World Cup Bracket Challenge gives fans a way to stay involved across the full tournament. The promotion includes a $250,000 prize pool, with $150,000 for a perfect bracket and $100,000 linked to influencer team brackets.

Common mistakes to avoid

Common mistakes in first-time winner betting include overestimating dark horses and failing to account for tough draws.

Bettors often chase novelty or hype, underestimate favourites’ resilience, or neglect tournament dynamics like the unpredictability of the knockouts. Research and realistic odds assessment are key.

Responsible gambling

First-time winner futures are long-term bets with plenty of uncertainty. Set strict limits, only wager what you can afford to lose, and know when to stop.