Dean Etheridge
India and Australia meet in the final Test of the series later this week. The visitors pulled off a shock victory in the 3rd Test match in Indore. So with a series win now far from assured for India, can they turn things around in the 4th Test and get the job done? Here we take a closer look with our latest free cricket betting picks.
- What; 4th Test
- Who; India vs Australia
- Where; Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad, India
- When; Thursday, March 9th – Monday, March 13th (five day match)
- Start Time; 11 pm ET (Wednesday 8th)
The Aussie’s pulled off a heist in the 3rd Test at Indore. Nathan Lyon was the star, taking 11 wickets in the match for the visitors, including figures of 8/64 in India’s second innings. The win for Australia also confirmed their place in the 2023 World Test Championship final.
Stumps on day two 🏏
Nathan Lyon ran through India's batting lineup and registered a brilliant eight-wicket haul 👌#WTC23 | #INDvAUS | 📝: https://t.co/FFaPxt9fIY pic.twitter.com/PCAUqw8HVS
— ICC (@ICC) March 2, 2023
As for India, a 1st innings batting collapse was the main reason behind the defeat. The loss not only puts the series win in jeopardy, it also means they need to win the 4th Test to secure their place in the WTC final. If India fails to win the fourth Test, their destiny will no longer be in their own hands. The Indians will be relying on the outcome of the forthcoming two-match series between New Zealand and Sri Lanka to decide their fate.
India vs Australia – 4th Test Betting
The result of the 3rd Test seems to have had an impact on the odds to win the fourth match. To win the 3rd Test, India were -260. The best cricket betting sites now make India -185 to win the 4th Test. As for visitors, they went into the 3rd Test at +425. The Aussies are just +265 to win the 4th Test, with the draw priced up at +650.
Below we have put together an odds table from the best online sportsbooks for cricket betting.
| India vs Australia 4th Test Match Betting |  |  |  |
| India | -185 | -180 | -185 |
| Australia | +265 | +265 | +250 |
| Draw | +650 | +625 | +650 |
Does India stick with the tried and tested formula?
The series so far has followed a similar pattern. India has produced spin friendly pitches in the belief that they have the better spinners. They also feel that the Australian batters struggle more against top-quality spin bowling, than the Indian batters do.
By-and-large, this has been the case throughout the series. But as the result in Indore proved, Australia does have top-quality spin bowlers, and they do have batters who can score runs in these conditions.
That said, Australia did manage to lose six wickets for 11 runs in a first innings batting collapse. But in fairness, the 96-run partnership between Usman Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne that preceded their latest batting debacle had already put the hosts firmly in control of the match. Such partnerships are what has proven the difference in all three Tests in this series.
Preserve the series win or prioritize the World Test Championship?
India does find itself in a bit of a predicament now though. A draw would see them win the series 2-1, but it wouldn’t guarantee them their place in the WTC final. So does India go for broke and produce another spin friendly pitch – and in doing so, give Australia the chance to draw the series?
And it could also prove a risky move on a second front, as the pitch played on at Indore was rated ‘poor’ by ICC match referee Chris Broad. The hosts could do without having a second pitch being ‘marked down’ so soon after.
The Indore pitch for the third Test has been rated as 'poor' by the ICC 👀 #INDvAUS pic.twitter.com/KWJGOUYHfG
— 7Cricket (@7Cricket) March 3, 2023
India vs Australia Picks
There are two ways of looking at this. India are better in these conditions, they have won their last 15 Test series in this manner. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t put the 3rd Test defeat down to a poor performance, and believe that normal service will resume in the 4th Test.
Or alternatively, the hosts can place a huge emphasis on protecting their unbeaten run at home, and produce a slow pitch that has draw written all over it. And work on the theory that Sri Lanka won’t win 2-0 in New Zealand – ensuring India take their place in the World Test Championship final.
Not knowing what sort of pitch India will produce makes predicting the outcome of the match slightly more complicated. But we’re going to work on the theory that India will stick to the tried and tested formula that has served them so well over the years, and produce a normal spin friendly pitch for the 4th Test.
History tells us that this usually means a win for the hosts. So we are going to stick with India and make them our pick to win the 4th Test.
Player of the Match Picks
If you’re a bit reluctant to wager on India given the Aussies won the 3rd Test, and you think India look a touch short in the betting, then we’re also naming a couple of players of the match cricket betting picks.
Ravi Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja have both had excellent series, at times, they have even opened the bowling together. Jadeja leads the way in the series with 21 wickets. Ashwin has 18, one behind Nathan Lyon (19 wickets). Both Jadeja and Ashwin are +450 to be player of the match. Lyon is +900.
The chances are it will be a bowler dominated match. So any of those three bowlers could make good value picks. We’re going for Jadeja and Lyon.
