Golf Betting News | Scottie Scheffler Heavy Favorite as PGA Championship Looms, Futures Markets, Trends & Analysis | May, 2026

Henry Shepherdby Henry Shepherd
Updated: May 14, 2026

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The 2026 golf season is really starting to find its rhythm now, with attention firmly fixed on the second major of the year. The 2026 PGA Championship, set for May 14–17 at Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania, has quickly moved to the forefront of the betting conversation. Scottie Scheffler comes in as the defending champion and, as expected, remains the clear favorite at the top of the market.

Rory McIlroy’s Masters win is still hanging over everything in terms of market influence, and you can see that reflected in how prices are shaping up. But at the same time, recent results on both the PGA Tour and LIV circuit have already started to shift things around a bit.

Events like the Truist Championship and LIV Golf Virginia have also reinforced something we keep seeing this time of year, current form and ball-striking matter more than reputation. They’ve also brought the LIV discussion back into focus again, particularly around how those players prepare for majors. Although, with the recent funding news, this may not be relevant much longer.

This update is really just about cutting through the noise. It looks at where the market is moving, who’s trending, and what’s actually changing heading into the PGA Championship and the events around it.

Make sure you’re up to date with the top Golf betting sites, your go to guide for golf wagering.

This month’s biggest golf betting storylines

  • Scottie Scheffler remains the player everyone is chasing

Scheffler continues to dominate the outright market heading into Aronimink.

Most sportsbooks have him sitting between +350 and +480 to win the PGA Championship. It is difficult arguing against him being the deserved favorite. His approach play continues to separate him from almost everyone else on Tour, and his short game has become incredibly reliable under pressure.

At the same time, bettors are starting to reach the point where outright prices feel a little too restrictive. That has shifted some attention toward alternative markets like top-5 finishes, top-10 placements, or matchup betting instead of simply backing him outright.

Still, if anyone enters the week as the clear benchmark, it is Scheffler.

  • Cameron Young is rocketing up the odds board.

Cameron Young has been moving up the futures market after putting together a really strong run of form, largely driven by his elite ball-striking. He’s now right near the top of the board as the third favourite for the PGA Championship at around +1200, and it’s easy to see why when you look at his recent results. Over his last seven starts he’s posted finishes of 7th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 25th, 1st, and 10th, a stretch that shows both consistency and genuine win equity when everything clicks.

One noticeable trend lately has been the amount of support flowing toward American players outside the very top names. Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, and Collin Morikawa have all continued attracting betting interest as well.

There is a feeling among bettors that several U.S. players are peaking at the perfect time heading into major season.

Young, especially, has seen his price tighten significantly over the last month. Books that once viewed him as a dangerous outsider are now treating him much closer to the elite tier.

  • Rory McIlroy’s market price still divides opinion

McIlroy’s second straight Masters title pushed him right back near the top of the PGA Championship board, with most books listing him around +850 to +950.

The question bettors keep debating is whether his schedule and preparation leading into Aronimink are ideal after such an emotional Augusta win. Some players thrive after capturing a major. Others naturally dip for a few events afterward.

There is no questioning Rory’s ability, especially when his driver is cooperating, but bettors seem slightly more cautious than they were immediately after the Masters.

  • Ludvig Åberg is not a good value pick

Golf betting analysts have started to cool a bit on the hype surrounding European breakout star Ludvig Åberg. Even though he’s still priced around the (+1800) range in a lot of outright markets, there’s been a clear shift in how sharper bettors are viewing him, with some suggesting the number doesn’t fully account for the risks at this stage of his career.

The biggest concern being pointed out is his inconsistency when the spotlight gets brightest, especially in major championships where he’s already shown a tendency to miss cuts. Because of that, a growing number of bettors are leaning toward either avoiding him in outright markets or playing against him in certain spots, feeling that expectations may be running a little ahead of what he’s actually produced at major level so far.

Largest golf outright odds movement this month

Recent tournaments have caused noticeable reshuffling across the futures market.

Cameron Young continues trending upward after another run of excellent ball-striking performances. Ludvig Åberg has drawn heavy support thanks to his consistency and ability to handle firm conditions extremely well. Both are in the top five of the betting for the PGA at +1200 and +1800 respectively. As mentioned, Åberg’s odds may be too short.

Matt Fitzpatrick’s precision-based game has translated nicely into current course discussions too, particularly at venues where accuracy and scrambling matter more than pure distance. Fitzpatrick sits inside the top 10 of the betting at +2200 and is likely to be a similar price all season.

Brooks Koepka remains one of the more interesting names on the board despite inconsistent regular results. Every time a major arrives, bettors naturally gravitate back toward him because of his track record in these situations. He is the number 10 favorite at +3500.

A few well-regarded names have taken a noticeable hit in the market after a run of missed cuts and patchy putting form, with what were once regular contenders now priced up as long shots for the PGA Championship. Wyndham Clark is out around (+15000), while Brian Harman sits closer to (+17500), both reflecting that dip in consistency. 2022 Open Winner Cameron Smith is the most notable drop off. Once on top of the world having won in St. Andrews and considered a top ten player, his odds now sit at +30000!

Other European and British players continue offering some of the most interesting each-way opportunities on the board. Tommy Fleetwood continues drawing support too because bettors trust his consistency, while Robert MacIntyre’s aggressive game creates upside if conditions become difficult. MacIntyre may be being overlooked slightly by the bookies. +8000 is good value.

Alex Fitzpatrick has probably been the biggest surprise mover recently.

Winning the Zurich Classic with Matt and then backing it up with a strong run at the Truist Championship feels like a genuine turning point in Alex’s season. There seems to be a lot more confidence in the way he’s playing now, and you can see it in the quality of his ball-striking compared to where it was earlier in the year.

Over the past few months, his iron play in particular has sharpened up quite a bit, and the betting markets have definitely taken notice. His prices have shortened across both outright and top-20 markets in a number of events. Heading into the PGA Championship, he’s now sitting roughly 35th in the betting, which is a pretty big move when you consider where he started the season, with some books still listing him around (+10000).

A major win might still be a stretch at this point, but he’s starting to look like the kind of player who can hang around the leaderboard if things break his way.

European/British style players tend to come into their own when a course starts asking more questions than just who can hit it the farthest. On setups where accuracy off the tee, patience around the greens, and a bit of creativity are required, they often look a lot more comfortable than the betting prices suggest.

Potential LIV collapse shakes up betting odds

One of the biggest stories in Golf right now is the potential loss of funding for the LIV tour. If LIV Golf collapsed, the immediate effect would be volatility as sportsbooks adjust to reintegrating elite players back into a single ecosystem (assuming some are let back in after paying fines etc.). In the short term, that could create betting opportunities due to pricing inefficiencies.

Long term, however, golf markets would almost certainly become more efficient, more stable, and more tightly modeled, especially for majors like the PGA Championship.

While LIV continues at least for now, Rahm and DeChambeau continue controlling much of the conversation after dominating recent events between them.

Heading into LIV Golf Korea later this month, both players once again sit as clear favorites.

At the same time, bettors are becoming increasingly cautious about automatically translating LIV dominance into major championship expectations. The adjustment back into deep full-field events under traditional major pressure remains difficult to measure, and that uncertainty is clearly impacting prices.

Upcoming tournaments market landscape


The PGA Championship at Aronimink could be a fascinating betting week. Donald Ross designs tend to expose weaknesses quickly, especially mentally, and that usually creates opportunities for bettors willing to dig deeper into the numbers.

At the top of the market, Scheffler is still firmly out in front at around (+475), with McIlroy next in line at roughly (+900). Cameron Young follows at about (+1200), while Rahm sits near (+1600) alongside Åberg around (+1800). Xander Schauffele is also priced close to (+1800) and stands out as one of the more interesting PGA Championship options in that group, especially when you factor in how much consistency and proven major experience tend to matter when the pressure ramps up over the weekend.

A lot of sharper betting money has already started targeting players with strong approach metrics or positive history on similar bentgrass-heavy setups. Performances at the Truist Championship also influenced pricing more than usual because bettors viewed it as a strong preparation event for Aronimink.

The winner of the Truist, Kristoffer Reitan, has come from obscurity to now sit at +9000 to win the PGA Championship. Rickie Fowler who was 2nd has also shot up the odds board to +5000.

Away from the major, the upcoming stretch of events, including the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and the Charles Schwab Challenge, could present some more appealing value spots for bettors willing to dig a little deeper into the field. These tournaments often don’t have the same stacked top-end quality, which naturally opens the door for mid-tier players to get into contention.

That kind of setup also tends to produce winners at much bigger prices than you’d typically see in a major, where the same handful of elite players usually control most of the market.

Betting trends to watch

Several betting patterns have become pretty clear over the last few weeks.

One of the biggest is the so-called “post-major hangover” effect. Historically, players coming off major victories often struggle to immediately maintain that same intensity at the next big event. That is one reason some bettors remain hesitant backing McIlroy at shorter prices despite his Masters success.

Course fit continues mattering enormously too.

Aronimink is the type of setup where good ball-striking alone usually isn’t enough, it tends to reward players who combine sharp iron play with solid scrambling and a bit of patience when the greens get tricky. In conditions like that, bettors who lean into strokes gained approach stats and scrambling performance are generally pointing in the right direction, since those are often the areas that separate contenders from everyone else over four rounds.

Another growing trend involves props and matchup markets outperforming outrights from a value perspective. Heavy favorites naturally create compressed pricing at the top of the board, so many experienced golf bettors are increasingly targeting:

  • Top-10 markets
  • Head-to-head matchups
  • Round leader bets
  • Scoring props
  • Strokes-gained derivatives

What could move the odds before next month’s update?

  • If Scheffler puts together another dominant week at the PGA Championship, you’d almost expect his prices to tighten right across the board for the rest of the 2026 major season. One big performance like that tends to reset expectations pretty quickly.
  • Strong showings from players like Cameron Young, Ludvig Åberg, Alex Fitzpatrick, or Kristoffer Reitan would likely spark another wave of movement in the futures markets as bettors and books react to new form lines.
  • LIV Golf Korea later this month may influence perception around Rahm and DeChambeau heading deeper into major season.
  • Weather forecasts at Aronimink could significantly affect scoring expectations and live betting markets.

Previous betting news

  • [April 2026]: Rory McIlroy claims second straight Masters; Scheffler runner-up, solidifying his status as major favorite despite the close loss. American players gain futures momentum.
  • [March 2026]: The Players Championship once again delivered heavy betting action, with outright market shifting quickly. Early leaders saw their prices collapse after strong opening rounds, showing just how reactive the market can be over the first 36 holes.
  • [February 2026]: At the Genesis Invitational, sharp money leaned heavily toward elite ball-strikers, with favorites tightening around 10–15% after strong strokes gained approach performances came through early in the week.

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