Horse Racing Betting News | Kentucky Derby Insights, Market Movers & Analysis | May, 2026

by Rowan Ward

Updated: May 15, 2026

The Preakness Stakes is coming up May 16. Though Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo bypassed that spot and is expected to contest the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on June 6 instead, that emboldened many connections to try their horses in the Preakness Stakes.

A full field of 14, the most allowed under the rules, was entered for the second jewel of the Triple Crown, which will be run at Laurel Park in 2026 while Pimlico is under construction. Iron Honor was tabbed as the +450 favorite on the Preakness Stakes morning line, with Taj Mahal, Incredibolt, and Chip Honcho at +500 and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Ocelli at +600. Actual Preakness markets are tight at the top among these five, making it an excellent race for shopping around sportsbooks for the best odds.

The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, the fillies’ complement to the Preakness, is also a major feature in the betting markets. Jumping the Gun is the +300 favorite on the morning line over Braken Poppa and My Miss Mo at +350, but in actual markets it’s Braken Poppa and My Miss Mo battling for favoritism. They’re both +275 at BetUS, while My Miss Mo is +200 to Braken Poppa’s +275 at Bovada.

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The biggest betting storylines this month

1. Incredibolt was a draw-day surprise in the Preakness Stakes, only declared for the race on May 11, a few hours before posts were drawn. He finished a troubled sixth in the Kentucky Derby and should get an excellent pace setup in the Preakness. So, despite the last-minute nature of his entry he has been a market mover: the +475 favorite at BetOnline, the joint +500 favorite at Bovada, and the joint +500 second choice at BetUS.
2. Among middle-priced horses in the Preakness, Talkin is a major market mover. Even though he hasn’t won since his debut at Saratoga last fall, he showed a spark when third in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and he got the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. Compared to a +2000 morning line, he has been bet down to +900 at BetOnline, +1100 at BetUS, and +1200 at Bovada.
3. Great White, who scratched behind the gate in the Kentucky Derby, is taking a lot of money in pari-mutuel markets but is showing wild disparity between sportsbooks. Slammed down to +600 in early pari-mutuel action off a +1500 morning line, he is +2000 at both BetOnline and BetUS – but just +1100 at Bovada.
4. In the Black-Eyed Susan, morning-line favorite Jumping the Gun has been cold in actual betting markets. Though she has clear upside if she settles better than she did in the local prep, the Weber City Miss, bettors are not convinced: she is a distant third choice at both Bovada (+600) and BetUS (+500).

Biggest futures, outright and win total moves this month

Most Breeders’ Cup markets (except the Classic) are still yet to open, and 2027 Triple Crown markets are also not yet open, and will not until the current Triple Crown is over and a few more two-year-olds have hit the track. However, it’s never too early to keep your eye on the major players who may move the markets when they open.

Breeders’ Cup Classic

There have been some graded-stakes races in the handicap division in recent weeks, though none with serious Breeders’ Cup Classic implications yet. The next major race in that division is expected to be the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs on June 27. White Abarrio and Sovereignty, the top two in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and the top two in current Breeders’ Cup Classic markets, are expected to clash – and Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Magnitude and 2025 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza are also expected to join the fray.

Journalism, third in the Oaklawn Handicap and fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, is not expected in the Stephen Foster. He might shorten up for the Met Mile (G1) on June 6 at Saratoga, on the Belmont undercard.

The betting public is waiting to see where the connections of Forever Young decide to go. He won the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year and his connections are considering a run in it again. If he goes that route, he is expected to prepare in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at the end of the Saratoga meet. However, his connections may instead try Forever Young on the grass. If they choose that route, Forever Young would be expected to return in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) before taking a tilt at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) at ParisLongchamp.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Breeders’ Cup Distaff markets haven’t opened yet, but when they do, the Kentucky Oaks winner always has a strong say. That’ll be the case this year with Always a Runner, who won a closely-matched edition of the Oaks in confident fashion by 1 1/2 lengths on May 1 at Churchill Downs. She is lightly raced – she won the Oaks in just her third career start – but she showed class and poise, and the daughter of Gun Runner is bred to train on through the year.

Breeders’ Cup Turf, Breeders’ Cup Mile

Rhetorical was a good horse at age four last year, winning the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) and finishing a credible fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He began his season with a third-place finish behind Zulu Kingdom in the Makers’ Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland, but stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time for the Turf Classic (G1) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. The Will Walden trainee looked like an even better version of his already-classy self, setting the early pace before bursting clear in the lane to win by 3 1/4 lengths.

That win opens up interesting options for Rhetorical, now that he has shown he can go beyond a mile, and a report from the Daily Racing Form says that Walden is considering the 1 3/16-mile Manhattan (G1) on the Belmont Stakes undercard June 6. If he continues to progress, then one of the major storylines will be whether Walden points him to the Mile again or keeps stretching him out for a chance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles.

Futures market check

The Triple Crown has already begun to influence the Breeders’ Cup Classic market. After the Kentucky Derby, Renegade is the highest three-year-old in the Classic market on Bovada at +1200: on par with Journalism and behind only Sovereignty (+500), White Abarrio (+800), Forever Young (+900), and Magnitude (+1100). Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo (+1600), Chief Wallabee (+2000), and Crude Velocity (+2000) are also taking early interest in the market.

Betting trends we’re watching this month

Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo is expected to return in the Belmont Stakes on June 6 at Saratoga. The rest of the Belmont field will not take shape after the Preakness is said and done.

Golden Tempo will inevitably take heavy action in the Belmont if he goes, just by virtue of being the Kentucky Derby winner. Second-place Renegade is also expected to line up in the Belmont, and may even go favored over Golden Tempo. Renegade missed by only a neck in the Kentucky Derby despite a troubled trip from the rail, and his trainer Todd Pletcher is a frequent Belmont winner with horses who run good but not winning races in the Run for the Roses.

Chief Wallabee, the fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, is also expected to contest the Belmont Stakes. Though he is unlikely to overtake Renegade in the markets, expect him to be well-bet between his high-class form and the fact that he is trained by Bill Mott, who won the Belmont last year with Sovereignty.

Another horse expected to be hot in the markets on Belmont Day, although not in the day’s featured race, is Pat Day Mile (G2) winner Crude Velocity. The lightly-raced Bob Baffert trainee is undefeated in three starts and blew the field away in the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day. He was briefly in conversations about the Preakness, but Baffert soon announced that he would keep the son of Beau Liam at one turn in the Woody Stephens (G1), a race Baffert has won three times before. Crude Velocity will be a heavy favorite off of that Pat Day Mile effort.

What could move odds before next month’s update

The main thing we will be watching is who else targets the Belmont Stakes. Some of that picture will become clearer after the Preakness Stakes, once trainers see how their horses come out of it and find out how they’ll handle another long, demanding Classic in three weeks.

The Peter Pan (G3) is considered a local prep for the Belmont. Lightly-raced Growth Equity won the Peter Pan in his stakes debut for trainer Chad Brown, who hasn’t ruled the Belmont Stakes out. However, Brown has a bumper crop of three-year-olds he could consider for that race including Preakness competitor Iron Honor, Kentucky Derby 10th-place finisher Emerging Market, Blue Grass runner-up Ottinho, and the aforementioned Growth Equity.

Action on Growth Equity may hinge, at least somewhat, on how The Hell We Did performs in the Preakness Stakes. One of the horses Growth Equity beat decisively in the Peter Pan was Trendsetter – the horse behind whom The Hell We Did finished second in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. Should The Hell We Did run well at Laurel, Growth Equity’s Peter Pan win may be regarded as higher-quality.

Previous horse racing betting news updates

• [April 2026]: Kentucky Derby futures tightened after final prep races, with top contenders shortening significantly following strong Grade 1 and Grade 2 performances ahead of the May classic.
• [April 2026]: Preakness Stakes early markets began to form, with trainers expected to decide participation plans shortly after the Kentucky Derby result.
• [March 2026]: Derby prep season created major odds swings, as late-emerging three-year-olds moved into contention while several early favorites drifted after disappointing prep runs.
• [February 2026]: Triple Crown futures opened wider than usual, with bettors targeting lightly raced prospects and proven juvenile stakes winners ahead of the spring prep calendar.