The Two Questions That Will Make Or Break Florida’s Sports Betting Rules

We recently wrote about Florida sports betting facing yet another lawsuit. Here again, the Seminole Tribe’s monopoly — which they run through Hard Rock casinos and an app — is being challenged.

After digging into the case more, there are really two questions that will influence the future of legal sports betting in Florida. Keep on reading and we’ll get into the heart of the matter.

Why Florida Betting Lawsuits Are So Common

We can’t get into the two questions without first explaining the issue at hand. Let’s rewind a few years back because this is far from the first lawsuit that has threatened the legality of Florida’s betting scene.

The legalized industry was birthed in 2021 when the state signed a 30-year compact with the Seminoles, granting them the sole right to offer sports betting across the Sunshine State. This includes both in-person at Hard Rock casinos and via the top-used betting app, Hard Rock Bet. It’s the latter that’s been at the center of these lawsuits.

In fact, almost immediately after the deal was signed, the cases started coming in. One federal judge ruled that the compact violated the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA), which only allows tribal gaming to happen on tribal land. That decision shut down the Hard Rock app just a month after it launched.

Then, in 2023, a federal appeals court overturned that ruling. So the app relaunched in November, and it’s been live ever since. But that wasn’t the end of the legal drama — just the end of round one.

The Florida Supreme Court tossed a separate state-level challenge on procedural grounds. Basically, the justices said the plaintiffs had filed in the wrong court. But they also left the door wide open for someone to try again — this time in the right venue. Well, that’s exactly what just happened, as we’ll explain in the next section.

New Case Will Hinge On These Questions

The new case was filed in Leon County Circuit Court — the right court, according to the state Supreme Court. And this time, it’s laser-focused on two big questions that go to the heart of the issue:

• 1. Did the Florida Legislature violate the state constitution (specifically Amendment 3) by legalizing online sports betting without a voter referendum?
• 2. Is it even legal to call statewide online sports bets “on-reservation” just because the servers are located on tribal land?

Let’s get into each question more in-depth now.

Question 1: Did Lawmakers Sidestep the Voters?

Amendment 3 was passed in 2018, and it’s pretty clear in its language. It says Florida voters have “the exclusive right to decide whether to authorize casino gambling in the state.” And yes, there’s been plenty of debate over whether sports betting technically counts as casino gambling — but federal regulators have said it does.

So if sports betting is casino gambling under federal law, and Amendment 3 gives voters final say over that, then why did the Florida Legislature approve it through a compact without a public vote?

That’s exactly what this new lawsuit is asking. And it’s not just legal semantics either. Back when Amendment 3 was on the ballot, a lot of the public discussion was about sports betting — especially after the U.S. Supreme Court had just cleared the way for states to legalize it. The public thought they were voting to keep that decision-making power in their hands. If the court agrees, it could mean the current setup violates the state constitution.

Question 2: Is Online Sports Betting Really “On-Reservation”?

This is the weirder of the two arguments — and possibly the more impactful one. Right now, the Hard Rock Bet app is legal across Florida because of a legal loophole of sorts. The compact and accompanying state law say that since the computer servers powering the app are located on tribal land, every bet placed through the app technically counts as an “on-reservation” wager — even if you’re sitting on your couch in Tampa, miles away from actual tribal-owned land.

The lawsuit contends that if a bet is being placed from a phone anywhere in the state, it’s clearly happening off tribal land — regardless of where the server lives. And under IGRA, tribal gaming is only allowed on tribal land.

If the court agrees with that logic, the Seminole Tribe wouldn’t lose its compact, but it could be forced to limit online betting access to people physically on tribal property. That would be a massive blow since the overwhelming majority of bettors — some 95 percent — use the app to place bets.

What Happens Next?

Unlike the first lawsuit, this one isn’t expected to impact the Hard Rock Bet app in the short term. There’s no injunction on the table so the app stays up while the case plays out.

According to gaming attorney Daniel Wallach — who’s been following this saga closely — the case could move quickly through the lower courts. But ultimately, it’s almost certain to end up in front of the Florida Supreme Court again. This time, though, the justices won’t be able to dismiss it on a technicality. They’ll have to address the actual merits of the case.

Wallach estimates a final decision could come sometime in 2026 or 2027, depending on appeals. Until then, Hard Rock Bet stays live — and the rest of the U.S. sports betting industry watches Florida with a close eye due to the possible precedent it sets in other states.