Could underdog China win more Olympic Golds in Paris than Team USA?

  • USA (-850) is a massive favorite to capture the most gold medals this summer 
  • China (+400) is the only other country with odds shorter than 80-1  
  • The 2024 Summer Olympics will take place in Paris, France from July 26 to August 11

Team USA aims to win the most gold medals at its fourth-consecutive Summer Olympics and the most total medals for the eighth time in a row. Will the global power continue its dominance at Paris 2024 or will China score the upset?

Before we look at the odds, check out these tips for Betting on Paris Olympics 2024 and see all the Sports & Competitions to bet on in 2024.

Most Olympic Gold Medals

CountryBetOnline ReviewBovadaMyBookie Review
Great Britain+8000+8000+8000
South Korea+100000+100000+100000

USA or China? 

USA (-850) claimed 113 medals in Tokyo, Japan four years ago. The key to the United States’ winning ways is its dominance in the pool. Swimming nabbed them 30 total medals and 11 golds in 2020. Athletics was a close second with 7 golds and 26 total medals.

While the U.S. finished with 24 more medals than second-place China (+400), the Chinese had 38 golds – just one fewer than the 39 won by the Americans.

Historical dominance

The U.S. dominated with 46 golds and 121 total medals at Rio de Janeiro 2016. Almost twice as many golds as second-place Great Britain, which claimed 27 on home soil. China captured just 26 golds and 71 total medals – 50 behind the Americans.

Looking back to the last time the Summer Games were on European soil, the United States grabbed 48 golds and 104 total medals at London 2012. That was nine more golds than the Chinese and 12 more total medals. The last time the Americans didn’t top the podium was Beijing 2008, when China racked up 48 golds on home soil. However, with 112 total medals, Team USA finished with 12 more than China.

USAMost Olympic Gold Medals
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FranceMost Olympic Gold Medals
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Analytics models

Nielsen’s Gracenote recently released a Virtual Medal Table (VMT) for Paris 2024, projecting the Americans to win eight more medals than they did in Tokyo with 121 total.

While China is forecast to finish with 85 medals, the algorithm sees them winning 37 gold medals due to having a top-three Chinese competitor in 21 different sports. That makes the Red Dragon a threat to Team USA, which is also projected for 37 golds.

France on home turf

The same analytics model expects France (+8000) to nearly triple its gold medal count from Tokyo 2020 with 27. The French are projected to medal in 23 different sports, a new record for the nation, for a grand total of 52 medals. That would be the nation’s best Olympic showing since 1900.

Best Bet

Nielsen’s number-crunching suggests that the USA should be nowhere near a -850 favorite to win the most gold medals. At times like this, it’s best to put patriotism to the side and wager on China at +400.  

ChinaMost Olympic Gold Medals
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Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.