American voters have their eyes toward the 2022 midterm elections on November 8. No matter what political line you toe, you should approach the elections with the same vigor of interest if you’re betting — because there are opportunities to make money. With that in mind, we wanted to share our own 2022 U.S. midterms election betting predictions. Let’s get right into it:
2022 House of Representatives Results Pick
First thing is first, let’s take a look inside the betting odds set by the most popular online sportsbooks. At the moment, it’s a one-sided affair with the Republicans being the overwhelming pick to take the majority of seats in the House of Representatives.
The House of Representatives is made up of 435 elected members with each state sending a different amount of electees (based on their population). The most thorough way to make a House of Representatives betting pick is to take a micro approach and look into all 50 states to gauge how things are trending. Unfortunately, that would take a massive amount of time and expertise, which let’s be honest, no one really has. Therefore, we’ll look at this bet and election, as a whole, from a macro lens.
Right now, the United States feels and looks like it’s in a tailspin. Inflation rose seven percent a year ago — the highest uptick in a single year since 1982. COVID is still raging and the death toll has continued to climb despite vaccinations being available. Gas prices are sky-high. Division among Americans remains high despite Donald Trump being out of office (and banned online). And as of late, the financial markets are crumbling (mainly due to inflation fears).
And in tough times, whether fair or not, the acting President takes the lion’s share of the blame. That seems to be happening as numerous polls continue to peg Joe Biden’s approval rating lower and lower as time goes by. Polls differ, but Biden’s approval rating at the moment seems to hover around 40 percent or so. Biden’s perceived performance by the public will have carryover effects throughout the midterms, and negatively so for his Democratic party in our opinion.
Historically speaking, midterm elections aren’t kind to the current president’s party. Get this, over the last century, the president’s party loses an average of 30 house seats (and three in the Senate) during the midterm elections. 30! That’s a bad sign considering the Democrats only have a 10-seat advantage over Republicans presently. All things considered, we’d be stunned if the GOP doesn’t eat the Democrats’ lunch in November. Betting on a Republican majority is a no-brainer here.
2022 Senate Results Pick
The betting odds on the Senate results aren’t as lopsided, but they remain very grim for the Democrats. Given there are 100 Senate seats (two for each state), the Republicans are favored to also control the 2022 Senate with 50-plus spots, per the top political betting sites. Here are the up-to-date betting lines:
|Republicans Over 50 Seats||-275||-275|
|Republicans Exactly 50 Seats||+350||+350|
|Republicans Under 50 Seats||+550||+550|
The Senate is currently split 50-50 by Democrats and Republicans. Only because of the Vice-President tiebreaker do the Dems control Congress. But for reasons mentioned before, it feels like a longshot that the Democratic party won’t be swept out of Congress control. The recent gubernatorial election in Virginia may have provided a sign for things to come.
In Virginia, the Republican nominee for governor, Glenn Youngkin, beat out Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic candidate, by two percentage points. The result came as a surprise given Biden toppled Trump by 10 percent during the 2022 Presidential Election in the same state. Biden and company rode a wave of anti-Trump sentiment to a big win in 2020, but if Virginia is any indication, that wave has crashed onshore now.
No surprise here, we’re laying the hammer hard on the over 50 seats held by Republicans. However, notice how the betting price on this Senate wager is almost half of the House of Representatives one? Don’t overlook that because betting isn’t just about being right, it’s about exploiting value — and -275 makes a whole lot more money than -500. We’d suggest betting heavily on the Republicans this upcoming election cycle, but especially so on this Senate bet. It has more “bang for your buck” per se!
How To Bet 2022 US Midterm Elections?
Many bettors don’t realize political betting is a full-on thing nowadays — and has been since the Trump era. Politics has invaded all phases of life, including wagering. But hey, at least there’s money involved in betting and not just constant-bickering with no end in sight. Anyway, to bet on the 2022 midterm elections and other political events, take a gander at the table below. We’ve listed sportsbooks that carry political bets, whether that’s on U.S. affairs or international ones.
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