Soccer Betting News and Analysis This Week | World Cup Underway, Golden Boot & Market Trends | June 17, 2026

Johnny Franciscoby Johnny Francisco
Updated: June 17, 2026

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The biggest FIFA World Cup in the sport’s history is well underway, already providing fans around the world with a number of intriguing plotlines.

For everything to do with betting on the World Cup, check out our soccer guide, which contains all things World Cup 2026, as well as guides you to some of the very best soccer sports betting sites around.

With the tournament getting underway last week, tensions and expectations are simmering nicely amongst fans and players of competing nations and with the 11 days of group stage action to come, we’re only getting started.

The opening game of the tournament saw co-hosts Mexico defeat South Africa in the towering Azteca stadium in Mexico City, while fellow hosts Canada opened their campaign the following day with a creditable draw against Bosnia-Herzogovina.

But the USMNT truly kickstarted the tournament later that evening with a thumping victory over Paraguay on a sultry summer night in LA. Their 4-1 victory captured the global imagination while the mighty West Coast setting only enhanced the spectacle.

Following the conclusion of the group phase, the knockout stages will commence – including a new, additional round of 32 – culminating in the final taking place in New Jersey on July 19th.

Argentina are the current holders, having beaten France in the final in 2022 on penalties, but no team has successfully retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1962.

Below, we break down the biggest soccer betting storylines and angles bettors should be watching heading into June.

The biggest World Cup betting soccer storylines this week

  • Lionel Messi scored his first ever World Cup hattrick to match Miroslav Klose as the FIFA World Cup’s all-time top scorer with 16. Argentina defeated Algeria comfortably in Kansas City.
  • Mbappé hit a brilliant brace to take him to 14 World Cup goals in just 15 matches at the tournament as France won their opening game vs Senegal
  • Erling Haaland also scored two for Norway in their first outing as the race for the FIFA Golden Boot starts to take shape.
  • Pre-tournament favorites Spain disappointed in a scoreless draw against spirited debutants Cape Verde, but group rivals Uruguay failed to take advantage in Group H after their own draw against Saudi Arabia.
  • All-square in Group G as Iran gave a creditable performance to twice come back to draw with New Zealand, despite their tumultuous preparation. While Belgium and Egypt could not be split either after a 1-1 draw in Seattle.

Games to keep your eyes on this week

  • Portugal vs DR Congo: Group K opens up with an apparent ‘David-and-Goliath’ clash between the much-fancied Iberians and DR Congo whose only previous World Cup appearance was under the guise of Zaire in 1974. They failed to score at that tournament, so will therefore be seeking their first ever World Cup goal here.
  • England vs Croatia: One of the pre-tournament favourites get going against World Cup specialists Croatia in what is a repeat their 2018 semi-final in Moscow. Thomas Tuchel’s England will be looking to avenge their defeat in Dallas.
  • Mexico vs South Korea: The winner of this one on Thursday, if indeed there is one, will have made a huge step towards winning the group and perhaps a more favorable knockout draw. After the first games in this group, both these sides will fancy their chances of progression whatever the result here.
  • Scotland vs Morocco: The Scots did defeat Haiti in their first game, albeit with less of a margin than was expected, but will know that sterner tests await. The first of these comes in the form of 2022 semi-finalists Morocco, who themselves impressed in their draw with Brazil – Scotland’s final group stage opponents.

What impacting the odds this week in the World Cup

The first Tuesday of the 2026 FIFA World Cup saw the markets move somewhat as several of the best players in the world stamped their mark on this tournament.

Three famed big-hitters laid down markers in the races for both the Golden Ball for the World Cup’s best player, and the Golden Boot for the competition’s top scorer.

Argentina captain Lionel Messi became the oldest player to ever score a hattrick at the World Cup, just a few days short of his 39th birthday, and in so doing, became the joint top-scorer of all-time at this tournament. Few would bet against the seven-time Ballon D’Or winner taking the record outright in the coming weeks.

Kylian Mbappe may offer some immediate competition in that regard as he sits only two behind Messi and Klose in the all-time scoring stakes after a brace against Senegal.

Erling Haaland sits level with Mbappe and several others on two strikes after putting Iraq to the sword in Norway’s first World Cup game this century, and will be hoping to add more before the knockout stage begins.

Germany, who have arrived largely unheralded at this World Cup after some barren years on the international stage, were dominant and clinical in their thrashing of Curacao after a slightly nervy start.

Kai Havertz doubled his World Cup tally with a brace, after the same feat vs Costa Rica in his last World Cup game in 2022, and is level with Mbappe and Haaland on two goals. New Zealand’s Elijah Just, USMNT’s Folarin Balogun and Yasin Ayari of Sweden all join him after braces of their own.

Favorites Spain dropped group points to Cape Verde and their odds to win the tournament may lengthen in view of that result, but they are notoriously bad starters at World Cups and often rally after an initial setback.

The starkest example of this trend is that of 2010, when, as favorites to win, Spain surprisingly lost their opening game but became the first team to do so and then win the World Cup in the same year. Argentina repeated the feat in 2022, lifting the trophy after a shock opening loss to Saudi Arabia.

Futures market and betting trends this week

  • Lionel Messi’s chances of a record-extending third World Cup Golden Ball have shortened (+650) after a blistering performance in the holders’ opening win against Algeria. He is also leading in the early running for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot (+260) for top scorer at the tournament after a hattrick in that game.
  • The Golden Boot race is heating up generally as Erling Haaland (+900) has now confirmed what was already suspected –  that scoring at the World Cup is no more of a problem for him than scoring anywhere else. Mbappe (+300 for the Golden Boot, +600 for the Golden Ball) has also reminded all of his brilliance and importance to his national team, while Harry Kane (+900) and outsider Cristiano Ronaldo (+3000) are still to make their bows in a potentially a thrilling race for individual goalscoring supremacy.
  • A clean sheet and a win for Argentina will not do any harm to favorite Emiliano Martinez‘s chances of retaining the Golden Glove award, he now sits at +440, marginally ahead of Spain’s number-one Unai Simon +480 after he kept a clean sheet as well, despite his team’s disappointing performance.

Longshot futures bets

After six days of World Cup action, it is still very early to find value in a lot of markets but some patterns are developing.

  • Kai Havertz will attract bettors if he continues his form in front of goal. After a big strike in an ultimately losing effort for his club side in the Champions’ League Final, he scored two of Germany’s seven against Curacao. While not a renowned goalscorer, Havertz is his side’s attacking focal point and at +1600 to be tournament top scorer might attract some considered longshot bets from those few who can see past Messi and Mbappe.
  • After a strong start, Norway have added weight to the arguments of those who marked them as dark horses at this tournament. Though it remains fanciful to suggest they will win the whole thing, odds of +550 to reach the semi-finals will be tempting to a lot of fans.
  • Scotland’s win over Haiti leaves them with a nearly 90% probability of making the knockout stages, despite their having two games left in the group, and there will be many optimistic Scots about. At +240 go one better and make the round of 16, there could be some Scottish money moving this market if they can avoid defeat against either Brazil or Morocco.
  • Sweden opened their campaign with a thumping win over Tunisia, with Yasin Ayari scoring a fantastic double against the land of his father’s birth. The Swedes were unfancied heading into the competition but have several difference-makers in attack who could carry them further than predicted if they find form. At +550 to make the quarter-finals, they are a longshot but perhaps an increasingly appealing one.

 Previous betting news updates

  • [June 2026]: The World Cup begins! Messi becomes the oldest player to score a World Cup hattrick.
  • [May 2026]: Paris Saint-Germain won the Champions League for a second consecutive season.
  • [May 2026]: Arsenal win the Premier League for the first time since 2004.
  • [May 2026]: Liverpool sacked Arne Slot as manager, and have replaced him with Andoni Iraola.
  • [May 2026]: Man Utd have agreed a deal with Atalanta to sign Brazil midfielder Ederson.
  • [June 2026]: Real Madrid have announced the signing of Ibrahima Konate on a free transfer from Liverpool.
  • [June 2026]: Juventus have failed to reach an agreement with Dusan Vlahovic over a new contract, and he will leave for free.

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