Frank Lorenzo
Arsenal (+210) at Tottenham (+135), Draw (+240)
Both Tottenham and Arsenal missed a chance to solidify their hopes of an EPL title during the week. Now neither can afford another misstep when they go head-to-head at White Hart Lane in the London Derby this Saturday (7:45 AM Eastern).
After Leicester City drew at home against West Brom on Tuesday, Tottenham had the chance to steal top spot in the standings. But Spurs lost to West Ham (1-0), and now sit three points back of the Foxes.
That left the door open for Arsenal to move level with Tottenham for second. But the Gunners couldn’t capitalize, either, blowing a 1-0 lead at the Emirates to bottom-feeding Swansea, ultimately losing 2-1.
For Tottenham, the setback ended a six-game win streak. But at least it came on the road against a team fighting for a top-four placing in the table. Arsenal, on other hand, have no excuses. They were playing at home against a Swansea squad that’s only fighting to avoid relegation. They were massive favorites and were expected to have a field day.
The loss was the second straight for the Gunners, who also fell at Old Trafford last weekend (3-2). They remain on 51 points, but are now six back of Leicester for first-place. Meanwhile, Man United (47 points), Man City (47 points), and West Ham (46 points) are all within striking distance and could bump Arsenal from the top-four by season’s end.
The Arsenal players may enjoy a break from the Emirates, where they’re winless in their last three (all competitions). But the squad hasn’t exactly been a road warrior, either, going 7-3-4 away from home this year. Their 18 goals against on the road are the most among the EPL’s top-four.
Tottenham, on the other hand, have been a great bet at home. They are 8-4-2 overall at White Hart Lane (with a +15 goal differential), good enough for the third-best home record in the EPL.
These two clubs met back in November at the Emirates and the game ended in a 1-1 draw. Arsenal arguably have the stronger roster, but they can’t be trusted at the moment. Despite losing to West Ham, Tottenham are the hotter team right now and look like good value at +135 at home.
Pick: Spurs (+135).
(Photo credit: Catherine Kõrtsmik (Flickr: U-19 England vs Greece.) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)
