California Makes 2028 Sports Betting Intentions Clear Again

We’ve heard it for months now: whispers of Native American tribes in California eyeing 2028 as their chance to legalize sports betting in 2028.

They were rumors, but now it’s been fully confirmed by one of the biggest voices in that world — James Siva. He is California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) Chairman, and in early July, Silva was speaking at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) Summer Meeting in San Diego.

“We’re still very much looking at 2028 as a date that tribes are preparing to move forward with a tribally led initiative for an online sports betting market,” Siva said out loud at the meeting.

And with that folks, we’re officially on track for a collision-course ballot vote in 2028… maybe. Just because Siva wants it to happen doesn’t mean it will. Keep on reading, and we’ll explain the tricky dilemma happening behind doors in California’s betting industry.

California Needs A System For Everyone

Here’s the great challenge facing California: it has an abundance of tribes. Matter of fact, there’s more federally-recognized tribes in California than any other state. Now, not all of them are involved in the legal betting industry, but multiple dozens are.

While in San Diego, Silva was seated next to Cahuilla Band of Indians Chair Erica Schenk and Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation Vice Chair Johnny Hernandez Jr. — a tiny sliver of California’s tribal representatives. When discussing the issue, Silva said point blank the the sports betting initiative will “make sure that no tribe gets left behind as we expand gaming.”

He also said CNIGA wants “equitable treatment” for all of the state’s gaming tribes. It may sound like lip service, but it’s not. California has a compact with ALL the tribes, not just one or a few power players.

This is the opposite of what Florida has. Over there, the state has a compact with the Seminole Tribe and them only (there’s only one other federally recognized tribe in Florida, though). That made it easy to sign a 30-year agreement and get a sports betting framework up and running in no time, and without a public vote.

California will not have that same luxury. And getting this betting thing across the line will talk a lot of deal-making behind the scenes, and some tribes likely putting their ego aside. At the same time, the tribes can rally around one common enemy: prediction markets.

Prediction Markets Are The Biggest Threat To Tribes

You may remember the last time the tribes and top sports betting apps (e.g. DraftKings and FanDuel) tried to legalize sports betting in California four years ago. Voters overwhelmingly said no to two different legalization ballot questions. Seriously, neither even got 35 percent of the vote.

Why wouldn’t the same happen in 2026 if voters get pressed with the question again? Easy: because prediction markets now exist and they’re perfectly accessible inside the Golden State.

Siva outright said the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket have become public enemy No. 1 for gaming tribes. His exact words were:
“Prediction markers are the largest, most impending threat we’ve faced since the creation of this industry.”

That’s a bold statement when you consider California tribes have spent years battling commercial sportsbooks, sweepstakes casinos, and countless other gambling proposals. So they’ve been through the wringer, but even then, prediction markets pose an entirely new challenge.

Why is that? The simple answer is that California’s government might not even have a say on this matter. California tribes could always fall back on a compact it signed with the state that grants them the right to offer betting, and only them, stateside.

Now? Prediction markets are federally regulated, and so far, the Trump administration says they are fair game. By that, we mean it’s fully accessible in all 50 states, and none of them can outlaw it, no matter what their local regulations are on sports betting.

Prediction Markets Are Already Siphoning Money Away From Tribes

Here’s the thing: this isn’t a future threat. It’s already here and now.

Per Siva, tribes are already losing money to prediction markets. He estimated the platforms may have siphoned away as much as five percent of tribal gaming revenue already. We’ll be honest, that number might be off. California tribes are in the casino business only, so “sports contracts” that Kalshi is making bank off shouldn’t affect them.

But hey, let’s just take Siva at face value. If the five percent number is true, it would explain why California tribes have taken such an aggressive approach toward prediction markets. So far, they’ve pursued legal action against them and are openly lobbying California lawmakers on the issue.

For what it’s worth, Siva said this is working. He said tribes have helped kill legislation addressing prediction markets because even regulating them could strengthen the industry’s legal argument. In his view, creating a regulatory framework risks legitimizing products the tribes believe shouldn’t exist in the first place. As he put it, the only acceptable outcome is a “killshot.” Strong words indeed!

This is the political backdrop fueling legalization efforts going toward 2028. And we fully expect things to continue shuffling around in the background. This is going to get more and more complicated — there’s just too much money on the line for it not to be.