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It’s not a secret that Las Vegas betting is in a downturn. We can debate how long it’ll last, but there’s no denying business is down in Sin City. Most numbers — from tax revenue to hotel occupation rates — are down double-digit percent since peaks after the pandemic.
Some believe the city has priced out the non-rich. Others say international tourism has fallen off a cliff due to President Trump, and that’s rubbing off on Vegas. We think it’s a little bit of both, plus exploding competition.
Sports betting apps are commonplace around the country — something that wasn’t the case eight years ago when Nevada had a monopoly on the industry. Along the same lines, so many states are getting more and more commercial casinos.
We want to talk about the latter because there’s a new casino in California that’s exceeding expectations. And when you think about it, it could be contributing to Vegas struggles. Keep on reading, and we’ll tell you all about it.
Hard Rock Casino Tejon Off To A Bang
We’re six months into the Hard Rock Casino Tejon experiment. And so far, so good for the $600 million tribal casino that opened last November near Bakersfield, California. That’s in the central part of the state, but then again, not that far off Los Angeles — only a one hour and a half drive. That’s a fraction of the LA to Vegas drive, which can be a four-hour trek.
The casino actually opened one month ahead of schedule, which was a good sign in and of itself. But a healthier metric to measure demand half a year later is employee size.
Property president Chris Kelley recently told new org. SFGATE, the casino started with about 1,100 employees. The expectation, apparently, was that the number might settle down after opening. Instead, the exact opposite happened. The workforce has already grown to around 1,400 because the casino’s volume beat expectations.
We can use the same metric to point to Vegas’ struggles. We’ve seen headline after headline saying a casino laid off card dealers, hotel staff, and so on.
But what’s leading to Tejon’s early success? Answering that question will give us a better idea if this momentum will last or if it’s just early excitement that eventually fades.
Location Might Be The Secret Sauce
On paper, the Tejon location feels head-scratching. If you’ve ever been in central California, you know it lacks the palm trees of Southern California. Instead, the region is full of farmland, oil rigs, and a whole lot of nothing.
But that might be the point.
Hard Rock Tejon sits near the convergence of Interstate 5 and State Route 99, right at the base of the Grapevine. That gives it access to two huge feeder markets: the Central Valley and Los Angeles. Kelley said there are about 6.5 million people within a two-hour drive of the property.
That’s not a small market. That’s a gold mine, especially when you’re offering something those people don’t have to drive all the way to Vegas to experience. And apparently, that’s been the exact selling point for Los Angelenos.
“The surprise for us has been the percentage of visitation from LA,” Kelley said. “We expected to draw significantly from Los Angeles but we have done a much larger draw from that area from day one.”
It’s Not All Location Though
Location is a big key to success, no doubt about it. But… we don’t want to undersell the casino either. Like we said, this thing cost $600 million to create. That’s not a bad chunk of change.
For that price, Hard Rock Tejon has 150,000 square feet of gaming space, more than 2,000 slot machines, and 58 table games. That puts it in the same gaming-floor neighborhood as major Las Vegas Strip properties like the MGM Grand, Bellagio, Aria, and Mandalay Bay, as crazy as that sounds.
The casino also brings the usual Hard Rock flavor. There’s music memorabilia everywhere, including signed guitars, pop culture artifacts, and even Sabrina Carpenter’s blue hooded dress from the “Please Please Please” video. Because sure, why not?
But a bigger factor to the success might just be the tribe that runs it. You see, this Hard Rock is owned by the Trejon tribe and managed by Hard Rock International, which itself has been owned by the Seminole Tribe of Florida since 2007. The Seminoles have a monopoly on Florida betting, but partnered with Trejon here on the other side of the country.
This casino wasn’t purely about the money for Trejon, though. That’s cheesy to say, but we really mean it. The Trejon tribe also bought into this to re-establish its sovereignty. For good.
Here’s the back story: the tribe was originally connected to California’s first Indian reservation in the 1850s, only for that reservation to be closed in the 1860s. Then, in 1979, the tribe was removed from a federal recognition list in what was apparently a mistake. That stayed in effect until 2011 when it got federal recognition again.
This casino gives them credibility as they re-establish themselves. And revenue, too. There will be a lot of casino money — to support the community — if this success lasts. But speaking of which, here’s one thing the Trejon tribe can do to assure that long-term viability.
Hotel Is Key To Longevity
The Hard Rock property has just about everything except a hotel. For now, at least.
Hard Rock officials have discussed plans to add a 400-room hotel, spa, and a 2,800-seat Hard Rock Live venue that could host concerts, sports, and other events. Having this would make the property a weekend stay, rather than a day-trip destination.
If that happens — which feels like a matter of it, not when — then this place gets even more dangerous for Vegas.
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