Chris Boline
- What: 2022 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix
- When: Sunday, November 13, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Sao Paolo, Brazil
The 2022 Formula 1 season is approaching its end, with only two races left on the docket. This weekend, the world’s top drivers will take to Brazil to participate in the 2022 Brazilian Grand Prix. It’ll have been two weeks since the previous Formula 1 race, the Mexican GP, which was held on Oct. 30 and was won by Red Bull star Max Verstappen. The Dutchman is heavily favored once again heading into the Brazilian GP, and for good reason.
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Brazilian Grand Prix Odds
 | To Win |
| Max Verstappen | -225 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +550 |
| Charles Leclerc | +600 |
| Sergio Perez | +1000 |
| George Russell | +1400 |
| Carlos Sainz | +2500 |
| Fernando Alonso | +12500 |
| Lando Norris | +25000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +50000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +75000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +75000 |
Heading into Sunday’s race in Sao Paolo, as usual, it’s Max Verstappen who enters the event as the favorite. The Red Bull star has been on a tear all season long, absolutely dominating the competition. At (-225) odds to win outright, the sportsbooks seem to be on the same page, as he’s favored heavily over the rest of the competition. The next best odds to win belong to Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton (+550) and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (+600), both of whom are considerable longshots.
Max Verstappen: are the odds worth it?
If Max Verstappen doesn’t win the Brazilian Grand Prix, it’d be a considerable surprise. That alone should show you just how dominant the 2022 Formula 1 season champion has been. Verstappen clinched the title with his win at the Japanese Grand Prix in early October, but he hasn’t taken his foot off the gas in the subsequent races. While some might slow down after securing the title, Verstappen has put together back-to-back wins at the US Grand Prix and the Mexican GP.
While (-225) odds are certainly a bit juiced, it makes sense when given the situation. Verstappen has 14 wins and 16 podiums on the year. No other driver in Formula 1 has more than three wins this season (Leclerc) or 10 podiums (Sergio Perez, Leclerc). To say Verstappen and Red Bull have a stranglehold over Formula 1 would be an understatement, and the Dutchman’s success figures to continue in Brazil.
Verstappen’s success has been both season-long and consistent. He’s won eight of the last nine Formula 1 races outright, and has three straight wins, too. The only gap in his winning streak came during the Singapore GP when he did not finish the race. Verstappen’s 2022 season saw him set the single-season F1 record for most wins and points in a campaign, and he’ll be looking to add to his legacy with another first-place finish.
Other potential winners?
In terms of other racers who could potentially dethrone Verstappen on Sunday, the pickings are slim. While technically anyone has the ability to cross the finish line in first, it’s highly unlikely that it’s a driver outside of the top three teams. If there’s another winner to come from this race, we’re banking on it being out of Red Bull, Mercedes, or Ferrari. That means, we’d be targeting a winner among the likes of Sergio Perez (+1000), Charles Leclerc (+600), Lewis Hamilton (+550), George Russell (+1400), and Carlos Sainz (+2500).
Of those aforementioned five drivers, Leclerc (3), Perez (2), and Sainz (1) are the only drivers with wins this season. All three have at least eight podiums this year, so they’ve been mainstays at the front of the pack, just unable to get past Verstappen. Lewis Hamilton was the winner of the 2021 Brazilian GP in Sao Paolo, so perhaps the Mercedes veteran can find an extra gear on Sunday and grab his first win of the season.
The Pick
Picking an outright winner is a difficult task for the Brazilian Grand Prix. Picking between Verstappen’s juiced odds and a longshot from the rest of the pack isn’t a favorable set of options. Fortunately, there are some eye-opening race specials, some of which look as if they can pay dividends.
The main race special I have my eyes on is “Both Red Bulls, Both Ferrari’s, and Both Mercedes’ All Top 6 Finish.” This bet is exactly as advertised, and doesn’t even require that Max Verstappen wins the race outright. For this bet to hit, both Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull drivers will need to finish the race in the top six. In other words, no other team can have a driver among the first six finishers in Brazil.
While that sounds like a tall task, it’s not unreasonable whatsoever. This bet would have been successful at the most recent Formula 1 race, the Mexican GP, and two of the last four races outright. At (+188 odds), there is excellent value on a bet which is in support of the race’s favorites. There’s some risk, of course, in that any one of the six drivers having a malfunction or picking up a penalty could prove costly, but we’re taking the value here and rolling with the favorites.
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