Noelle Matthews
- Bayern Munich v PSG
- Wednesday, March 8 2023, 15:00 ET
- At Allianz Arena, Munich
PSG must overturn a first-leg deficit in Munich on Wednesday evening, but it is the German side that looks the best pick to prevail here.
Who do Bettors Favor?
The best-rated online sportsbooks are agreed in making the German champion the big favorite to win this game on its own soil. Bayern is available at -118 with many bookmakers, while the French team is rated as the +270 outsiders and the draw is the underdog at +355.
| Bayern v PSG |  |  |  |
| Bayern | -118 | -119 | -125 |
| Draw | +355 | +330 | +355 |
| PSG | +265 | +270 | +270 |
Bayern On Course
Bayern’s hard-fought victory in Paris was an excellent performance, particularly considering that it had Benjamin Pavard sent off late in the game. That win has put it firmly on course for the quarter-finals and put the German champion in a great position to gain revenge for the 2020-21 last-eight loss to PSG.
The omens are good for Julian Nagelsmann’s team. Bayern has not lost a knockout tie in the Champions League after taking a first-leg lead since 2011. It has also won 15 out of 17 UCL games at the Allianz Arena, including during an impressive Group stage campaign, in which it beat Barcelona and Internazionale without conceding a goal.
If there was a thought that the tighter-than-usual Bundesliga race might put pressure on Bayern, the weekend’s battling victory over Stuttgart, which kept the team ahead of Dortmund at the top of the table, suggested that this is a Bayern team capable of handling the pressure and digging deep.
Make or Break for Galtier
For PSG, the first-leg defeat in Paris was a repeat of the 2019 Champions League Final, in which Kingsley Coman scored the winner for Bayern. The result is that the French giant is now on the brink of elimination, and it is make-or-break time for coach Christophe Galtier.
History is not on PSG’s side. Knocked out at the Round of 16 stage four times in the last six seasons, PSG has not managed to keep a clean sheet away from home in its last 12 European games and in knockout ties in which it lost the first leg, has failed to progress on five of the last six occasions.
Eight points clear at the top of Ligue One, PSG doesn’t have the excuse of being under pressure domestically, and it has several of the world’s best players, including Kylian Mbappe, who broke the all time club scoring record at the weekend. Failure on Wednesday is likely to see the end of Galtier’s tenure in Paris and set the club looking for a new figurehead to capture that first UCL title.
UCL Betting Head-to-Head
The rivalry between Bayern and PSG is a familiar one at the top level of European football, although the head-to-head record goes back only as far as 1994.
Both teams have six wins apiece from twelve games and remarkably, there has yet to be a draw between these two European big guns, although three of the last four meetings have finished with a 1-0 scoreline and you have to go back to 2017 to find either team winning by more than one goal.
The biggest match between the two so far was the final of the Champions League in 2020, which was played behind closed doors due to the COVID-19 pandemic and saw Bayern win 1-0.
UCL Team News
The team news for Nagelsmann is not great as he has some tough decisions to make, particularly in defense. With Pavard and Lucas Hernandez out, he has to decide whether to stick with the back three, in which case it is likely that Josip Stanisic could be lining up with Matthijs de Ligt and Dayot Upamecano in the center of defense. Sadio Mane may also be on the bench again, given the form of Thomas Muller and Leroy Sane who will be competing to provide support for striker Jamal Musiala.
Neymar will be out for the rest of the season as he undergoes ankle surgery, and PSG is also without Presnel Kimpembe and Renato Sanches, and there is doubt over whether Achraf Hakimi will play, or should be allowed to play, given the nature of the allegations against him. Marco Verratti is set to return, however, despite the strong performance of Warren Zaire-Emery at the weekend.
UCL Match Betting Pick
Both teams are awash with world-class talent and this should be an enthralling game, as PSG has no choice but to attack. It certainly has the attacking resources to level the tie and put Bayern under pressure, but the German side is deadly on the break and I think Bayern is the best pick in the match betting markets, in what could be a high scoring game.
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